Weekly market surveys of SteelOrbis scrap insiders finds most think US scrap pricing for July will settle sideways to potentially higher amid reports that domestic supply appears to be tightening while better demand may emerge from US East Coast export markets for July, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
A sideways to higher July market would contrast with the recent sideways June scrap market settlement prices compared to May, following the implementation of doubled 50 percent steel tariffs by the US Trump administration on June 4 and earlier reports of limited demand for June export scrap requirements.
Reports continue to circulate that US domestic inventories of scrap are growing more limited. “We’re hearing sideways, with maybe a push for a $5-10/gt premium over June settled prices,” said one US Midwest scrap insider. “We see the market as sideways to higher,” remarked another Midwest scrap supplier. Still another Midwest mill contact said July pricing was likely to settle steady to up, adding, “We’re seeing the market sideways at this point, with the possibility for a bit of upward momentum.” Yet another said, “We’re seeing very little change for July, with perhaps a sideways settlement most likely.”
While a clearer July scrap consensus is now beginning to emerge, the recent disarray in the Middle East may limit recent movement in the finished steel markets that would seem to be more supportive of a higher July settlement.
In finished steel markets, spot pricing continues to rise amid continuing reports that 50 percent steel tariffs will continue to reduce import availability, thus allowing domestic suppliers more levity to raise prices. Spot market hot rolled coils are likely to rise another $10/nt this week to on average $895/nt ($957/mt) or $44.75/cwt.
Based on a current sideways to higher July call, Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley may settle at or above the $435-460/gt ($442-467/mt) June settled prices, while shredded may settle at or above $375-380/gt ($381-386/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades could settle at or above $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt) and $325-345/gt ($330-350/mt), respectively, scrap insiders said.
In the US Northeast, a sideways to potentially higher expectation for July may net a busheling price at or above $380-400/gt ($386-406/mt), while shredded grades could settle at or higher than $325-335/gt ($330-340/mt). P&S and HMS grades could settle at or above $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt) and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, insiders told SteelOrbis.