US scrap price expectations for July are seen mostly sideways in market surveys this week, though some Midwest scrap suppliers told SteelOrbis that pricing could rise next month as supply appears to be declining.
This would contrast with the recent sideways-to-higher June scrap market settlement, which occurred amid continued limited demand for export scrap and the implementation of doubled 50 percent steel tariffs by the US Trump administration on June 4.
“I think supply is tighter and demand is picking up,” commented one Midwest scrap supplier. “We’re hearing sideways to up $20-30/gt for next month.”
Another scrap insider disagreed but did not offer an opinion on price. “I highly doubt that report because the domestic market is at least three weeks away from settling for July.”
Still another insider thought it was too early to predict the July scrap situation. “Maybe next week, we’ll get some ideas on the call for July.”
While reaching a clear consensus on July scrap remains problematic, especially given the recent unrest in the Middle East, the recent movement in the finished steel markets would seem to support a potentially higher July settlement.
In the finished steel markets, spot pricing continues to rise amid reports that the 50 percent steel tariffs will reduce import availability, allowing domestic suppliers to raise prices. However, more reports of buyer resistance to continued higher prices are beginning to emerge.
“There’s a lot of buyer resistance (to higher prices) in this zip code,” said one Midwest flat steel insider. “Mills will get prices up eventually...by the mid-summer... probably not,” he said. “But, as inventories dwindle with zero imports, TINA (there is no alternative) happens.”
Based on the current sideways-to-higher July call, Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley could settle at or above the $435-460/gt ($442-467/mt) June settle, while shredded scrap might settle at or above $375-380/gt ($381-386/mt). According to scrap insiders, Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades could settle at or above $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt), and $325-345/gt ($330-350/mt), respectively.
In the US Northeast, a sideways to potentially higher expectation for July might resulting busheling scrap prices settling at or above $380-400/gt ($386-406/mt), while shredded grades could settle at or higher than $325-335/gt ($330-340/mt). P&S and HMS grades could settle at or above $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt), and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, insiders told SteelOrbis.