Iron ore in China still near $100/mt CFR with minimal positive bias, supply to rise in 2025

Import iron ore prices in China on Thursday, January 2, have indicated minimal changes compared to the previous day and week on week, fluctuating at slightly above the $100/mt CFR mark. Though the near-term outlook is rather stable, growing supply in 2025 may continue to exert negative pressure on prices, especially given the lack of expectations for a general increase in demand.

Iron ore fines with 62 percent Fe content have indicated a rise of $0.35/mt on January 2 to $100.85/mt CFR. This level is $0.05/mt above that seen on December 26. Brazilian iron ore with 65 percent Fe has increased by $0.4/mt on January 2 to $114.6/mt CFR, while up $0.05/mt week on week, SteelOrbis has learned.

22 deals for a total of 276,200 mt of iron ore have been transacted on the Corex platform on January 2. In particular, 10,000 mt of 65.34 percent Carajas fines have been transacted at RMB 898/mt ($125/mt), for delivery to Jingtang port, while 90,000 mt of 61.7 percent Newman fines have been sold at $98.2/mt CFR, for shipment during January 26-February 4.

During the given week, import iron ore prices in the Chinese domestic market have edged up slightly. Inventory levels of the five main finished steel products have declined to the lowest level at the same period of the year over the past five years, bolstering steel prices to a certain degree. Due to the New Year holiday, demand for iron ore has been slack during the past week. Iron ore consumption at ports is anticipated to be good in the coming period as some steelmakers may build up stocks ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday (January 28-February 4). So, it is expected that iron ore pries may fluctuate within a limited range in the coming week.

However, the outlook for 2025 is not very bright and prices will remain under pressure. Iron ore supply from Australia is expected to increase by 20 million mt in 2025, while the main Brazilian miner Vale has put its supply target for 2025 at 325-335 million mt, versus an expected 328 million mt for 2024.

Iron ore futures prices at Dalian Commodity Exchange have increased by 0.64 percent today to RMB 782/mt ($108/mt) compared to the previous trading day, December 31, while increasing by RMB 5.5/mt ($0.28/mt) compared to December 26.

As of January 2, rebar futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,306/mt ($460/mt), increasing by RMB 1/mt ($0.14/mt) since December 26, while down 0.18 percent compared to the previous trading day, December 31.

Imported iron ore prices in China (week-on-week basis)

Price includes VAT.  

Nationwide iron ore concentrate prices (66 percent Fe)

Price includes VAT. 

$1 = RMB 7.1879