US-based investment banking company Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has revised its iron ore price forecast for 2026 to $93/mt, citing macroeconomic support, tighter inventories, and resilient Chinese steel production, according to a report by Bloomberg.
The upward revision marks a $5/mt increase from the bank’s previous projection but remains below current iron ore futures.
Tighter market conditions support near-term stability
Analysts led by Aurelia Waltham wrote that the iron ore market has “remained tighter than expected in recent months”, supported by:
- robust Chinese hot-metal output,
- stable port inventories, and
- yuan appreciation.
Iron ore futures in Singapore traded around $106.45/mt, up 15 percent from mid-June lows, following China’s new measures to curb industrial overcapacity. Year-to-date, benchmark prices have averaged around $101/mt.
China’s oversupply and global shipping surge pose risks
Despite the upward revision, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook. The bank expects iron ore prices to decline to $88/mt by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing structural oversupply risks in China’s steel market, although that is up from a previous forecast of $80/mt.
Goldman warned that:
- China’s net steel exports have peaked,
- domestic demand continues to weaken due to the prolonged property downturn, and
- these factors will weigh on crude steel output in 2026.
On the supply side, global iron ore shipments have increased 15 percent year-on-year in the current quarter. The bank noted that this trend will likely boost port stockpiles and keep inventories elevated throughout 2026, putting additional downward pressure on prices.
