How long will the uptrend continue with US export scrap prices to Turkey?

Monday, 17 August 2015 00:34:31 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

At the time of our last report two weeks ago, US export cargo prices to Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20 had ticked down to $225/mt CFR before climbing back up to an approximate range of $227-$229/mt CFR.  The most recently booked cargo for HMS I/II 80:20 was transacted at $239/mt CFR, and many question how long the uptrend will last.
 
Scrap prices within many US domestic markets have trended soft for the month of August, with many regions reporting that this month’s buys trended down between $20-$30/mt depending on the region and grade.  Finished steel inventories within the US are still robust, according to sources, who question whether mills will try to push the market down again come September. Other sources feel that in light of the flurry of recent trade case filings against US import hollow structural sections (HSS) tubing, hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil, cold rolled coil (CRC) and hot rolled coil (HRC), that there is a chance that US domestic scrap prices could begin to firm.
 
Another source pointed out that scrap inflow into US scrap yards continues to be off by as much as 30-40 percent, and questions whether export yards are rushing to book export cargos, despite inflow challenges, as a means of booking at the current, higher price points in case export prices once again begin to soften. Market sources in Turkey, however, have cited belief that the uptrend will last for a period of time but that it is not sustainable in the long term.

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