New and old deals surfacing in Turkey’s import scrap market have showed that deep sea scrap prices are stabilizing, having mostly exhausted their upward momentum. Market sources report that prices are very close to their peak if not already there.
Market sources from sellers, buyers and sub-collectors alike believe that the deep sea scrap market has reached its peak. Collection prices at EU export yards are in the range of €260-270/mt DAP. With the euro-US dollar exchange rate at around 1.13 on May 21, sources reported that European sellers were in a better position as compared to when the euro was stronger. On the other hand, domestic scrap prices in the EU have declined sharply in May as well as in the US domestic scrap market. Germany is carrying a risk of stagflation, and the new German government’s lack of a rapid response to the growing risk is creating questions for the EU market, where sources still report that scrap availability is on the low side. While market sources have not made up their mind about the likely trend for scrap purchase prices in June, with some still having hopes for an upward movement, the first impression from the US is negative. The growing debt pile of the US caused Moody’s to cut the country’s credit rating late last week, a first since 1919. Falling flat steel prices in the US are creating downward pressure on scrap prices, which had already fallen during April and May.
As of today, May 23, sentiment in Turkey’s import scrap market is stable. While market sources believe that there is no support from the finished steel market to push prices up, they also believe a significant fall in deep sea scrap prices is unlikely. The local rebar market in Turkey is now in holiday mood, while restocking with small tonnages has already been done this week. Turkey will be out of the market as of June 6 until June 9 for the Feast of Sacrifice holiday. The sluggish economic state of the country also creates uncertainties for all parties and is causing caution. As a result, players anticipate that the sideways movement of deep sea scrap prices will continue in the coming week.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have increased by 0.29 percent week on week. The prices are now 8.16 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $342-347/mt CFR.
Following two straight months of lower US scrap pricing, the June expectation for US domestic scrap is mixed this week, following on earlier reports calling for a sideways to lower expectation. Market insiders said the weekly call is mixed because of slightly higher spot flat steel pricing and continued reports of high scrap and rebar inventory on the US Gulf Coast.
This week’s mixed market call for June scrap could be the result of earlier reports of mills in “no-buy or reduced buy mode” during the May scrap buy-cycle when values declined $30-40/gt, insiders told SteelOrbis. This situation, they say, may have led some producers to scale back their output of flat steel, prompting this week’s higher price offers in the local spot market with hot rolled coils (HRC) up $12.50/nt to an average of $847.50/nt ($934/mt) or $42.375/cwt.
“Scrap could go up,” commented one East Coast rebar dealer. “There are three new mills that will need (June) scrap,” he said, “but will the Nucor mill and the new CMC mill just shift (scrap) tons from other mills to the new rebar mills? If so, there won’t be more scrap demand; just shifted.” He added, “Plus, if there is a domestic market for scrap, less will be exported. So, I don’t think increased domestic mill demand is going to upset the scrap pricing too much.”
SteelOrbis’ scrap data shows that, since monthly domestic scrap prices peaked in March ahead of the much-anticipated tariff announcements from the US Trump administration, the average price of Midwest Ohio Valley shredded scrap has slumped more than 24 percent from on average $506/mt ($514/gt) to $384/mt ($390/gt). HMS pricing in the US Northeast dropped a more conservative 22.8 percent during the equivalent period to on average $318/mt ($313/gt), SteelOrbis’ data show.
Although local prices in the Italian scrap market have remained largely stable this week, rumors of increases by €10-15/mt are already circulating among market participants. On their side, traders argue that the persistent lack of scrap availability will help boost such a trend, while mills believe that the low demand for finished steel and the forecast of rising energy costs could instead curb it.
This week is passing quietly in the local Polish scrap market, as mills have completed their scrap purchases for May and exports are slow, but still observed. The fundamentals in the local scrap market have not changed, which is why some sources believe there is no room for further declines. Other sources are more pessimistic and do not know what to expect for next month. Local collection prices for HMS I scrap stand at €260/mt DAP, stable week on week. Poland completed its first round of elections on May 18, and the new round will be held on June 1. In the meantime, Polish steelworkers are protesting against the European Union climate policies.
Price reductions in the local German scrap market have been significant, but due to the fact that low material availability is still an issue, such declines in scrap prices probably will not last long, SteelOrbis believes. For the moment, the export market and local market prices are more or less balanced, offering valuable alternatives for scrap sub-collectors. The German economy is expected to stagnate this year, with previous expectations of a slight growth failing to materialize. According to the latest data provided by BDSV, in the first 20 days of May E1 scrap prices marked a decline of €33.3/mt month on month, standing now at €245.7/mt.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has cut its domestic scrap purchase price by JPY 500/mt, but only for the Kyushu region. As a result, the general scrap purchase price range of the producer has remained stable.
Tokyo Steel’s general range for H2 grade scrap price is still in the range of JPY 39,000-41,500/mt ($269-287 272-289/mt) depending on the mill. Meanwhile, shindachi scrap prices of Tokyo Steel are also stable at JPY 40,000-43,500/mt ($276-300/mt) delivered. The prices shared in the table below are effective as of May 21.
After showing the first steps of a rebound last week, Taiwan’s import scrap prices have moved up further this week, as anticipated by SteelOrbis. The number of offers has also increased this week, though Japanese scrap prices are still found to be unattractive.
Market sources report that there are more cargoes available in the market, while prices have increased by another $5-7/mt this week to $299-305/mt. Actual deal prices have also moved up, by $5-6/mt to $295-298/mt CFR. After a long silence, Japanese traders are finally back in the Taiwanese market. Japanese H1/2 (50:50) bulk scrap cargoes have been offered in the range of $326-328/mt CFR to Taiwan.
Vietnam’s renewed interest in scrap has resulted in import deals this week, while prices have remained relatively stable.
Over the past week, offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have remained stable at $325-330/mt CFR. Market sources report that deals were done at the lower end of the offer range at $325/mt CFR for H2 grade scrap. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have also moved sideways at $345-350/mt CFR.
South Korean producer POSCO has announced bids for Japanese scrap after a month of absence from the market. Still being the sole scrap importer currently active in South Korea, POSCO has cuts its prices this week for Japanese scrap. POSCO has shared bids for Japanese HS grade scrap at JPY 47,000/mt ($328/mt) CFR, down JPY 500/mt month on month.
POSCO has kept its bids for Japanese shredded scrap stable at JPY 46,500/mt ($320/mt) CFR. The JPY 46,500/mt level indicates FOB-based prices for Japanese shredded scrap are at around JPY 44,000/mt or $307/mt, with freight between South Korea and Japan being around JPY 2,500/mt. Considering the gap between ex-Japan shredded and H2 scrap prices at around JPY 3,000-4,000/mt, this means indications for ex-Japan H2 prices for South Korea are at JPY 40,000-41,000/mt FOB or $278-286/mt FOB.
Tokyo Bay FAS-based price for H2 grade scrap is currently at JPY 41,500/mt ($290/mt). The FOB-based export price is now at JPY 42,500/mt ($297/mt) for the grade in question.
The Tokyo Bay HS grade scrap price now stands at JPY 45,500/mt ($318/mt) FAS, while the shindachi scrap price is at JPY 44,500/mt ($311/mt) FAS.
Shredded scrap import prices in Pakistan have risen slightly this week, with offers for ex-Europe/UK material reaching $385–390/mt CFR, up from $375/mt last week. However, buyer interest remains weak, as most bids remain at around $375–378/mt CFR, and high freight costs continue to dampen trade activity. Shipping disruptions and Indian port restrictions have forced vessels to reroute via Sri Lanka or the UAE, adding around $10/mt in freight charges and extending delivery times. These logistical challenges have further limited buying flexibility. Locally, scrap prices have remained stable at PKR 135,000–140,000/mt ($479–496/mt) ex-warehouse. Meanwhile, rebar prices have edged higher, with grade 60 rebar now trading at PKR 238,000–242,000/mt ($845–859/mt) ex-works, marking a week-on-week increase of PKR 2,000–3,000/mt ($7-11/mt).
Import scrap prices in Bangladesh have remained largely stable over the past two weeks, fluctuating within a narrow range. Despite steady pricing, trading activity has been subdued due to ongoing challenges in opening letters of credit (LCs), limiting the ability of buyers to secure cargoes. Shredded scrap offers from the EU and Australia have remained at $380/mt CFR, with bids slightly lower at $375/mt CFR. A 5,000 mt deal for ex-Australia HMS I/II 80:20 has been reported at $352/mt CFR, while 1,000 mt of shredded scrap from South Korea have been traded at $380–385/mt CFR. PNS scrap from Hong Kong has remained at $390-395/mt CFR, with several deals concluded, and 1,000 mt of PNS from Singapore was sold at $385/mt CFR Chattogram. In bulk, Bangladeshi buyers have purchased 10,000 mt of HMS I/II 70:30 from Singapore at $349/mt CFR and 15,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 at $360/mt CFR. Offers from the US and Australia for HMS-grade scrap have mostly been steady at $355/mt CFR, while ex-Japan H2 scrap has been offered at $345/mt CFR. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious, with trading likely to stay limited until LC issues ease.