As anticipated by market players, two weeks of silence in Turkey’s import scrap market has caused deep sea scrap prices to drop. Turkish mills stopped buying scrap in the second half of December and did not return to the market until after the New Year holiday. Turkey’s import semi-finished steel bookings supported the stance of Turkish mills, with approximately 475,000 mt of billet imports announced for November, following 628,000 mt in October. After the gradual price drop observed in Turkey’s import scrap market throughout 2024, 2025 began with negative sentiments, with market players expressing little hope for the first quarter of 2025. European scrap collectors have reported that domestic demand in their region is not expected to indicate any quick recovery, while many sources speak of the steel sector in the EU as being in crisis.
Accordingly, Turkey’s import scrap market indicated a further decline, especially for ex-Europe scrap prices. However, market sources report that the number of offers available currently is high. Some possible feeling of panic among sellers may push prices down further, while several players have said a stabilization of prices would be for the best. For now, SteelOrbis hears that sellers are showing resistance to lower bids. Several market sources, including both sellers and buyers, have voiced their expectation of a price stabilization after the abovementioned deals, while some consider a slight decline possible. No source voiced expectations for an upward movement before Turkish mills start to sign contracts for cargoes to be shipped in the second half of February.
Today, January 10, market sources still report a high number of available offers, with some mentioning an acceleration of ex-US scrap offers. While European scrap sub-collectors report scrap demand in the region recovering, with European steel producers’ increasing their bids for domestic scrap, Turkish mills do not seem to be convinced. European sub-collectors claim that collection prices cannot go down further, that this would disrupt scrap flow significantly, with the winter conditions making collection, demolition and trading harder. On the other hand, Turkish mills point to their own sluggish domestic rebar market, saying their finished steel prices are also dropping amid a lack of demand. No consensus has been reached between the two sides, while prices in the local US scrap market are also moving up as demand recovers after the holidays. “Even if that’s the case in their domestic market, there are too many players in the market from the US actively trying to find a buyer. This will make things harder for the European suppliers,” a source said today.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s short sea scrap quotations have already declined to $325-327/mt CFR. New deals were done this week in this price range, though market sources report little interest in shown in short sea offers.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved down by 2.5 percent week on week. The prices are now 0.59 percent higher month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $337.5-345/mt CFR.
January Ohio Valley scrap in the US is now discussed $20/gt higher this week across all grades, as the January buy-cycle continues, though earlier claims that prime grades could move even higher than that may not be realized, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Scrap is moving higher, insiders said, because of improved demand from local mills, and because the recent cold and snowy weather is expected to further reduce already low scrap inventories at many Midwest scrap collection facilities. Insiders say the combination of recent low offer prices to scrap peddlers at yards with the cold weather continues to limit available inventory. While the January settled prices were not available as of press time, based on a plus $20/gt January scrap increase, Ohio Valley HMS 1 could settle at $340-360/gt ($345-366/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded scrap is expected to settle at $395-400/gt ($401-406/mt) on delivered basis. P&S is likely to settle at $385-$395/gt ($391-401/mt) delivered to customer. Prime busheling scrap is seen at least $20/gt higher at $410-435/gt ($417-442/mt) delivered to customer.
SteelOrbis has learned that the current price for Mexican domestic shredded scrap has decreased by MXN 100/mt ($5/mt) over the past week to MXN 5,950/mt ($283/mt). Additionally, HMS I/II scrap prices have remained unchanged at MXN 4,250/mt ($202/mt) over the same period.
Local scrap prices in Italy have remained stable compared to three weeks ago and, according to sources, trading activity is still very slow since there has been only a small number of working days since the holidays. In fact, while some producers returned to work on January 7, others will not do so before January 13. Market participants are uncertain about what the price trend will be in January. According to one source, however, significant increases in the short term are to be excluded given the quietness of the finished market and the falling prices of deep sea scrap in Turkey.
With Japan having returned from the holidays, benchmark Tokyo Bay FAS-based scrap prices have dropped by JPY 1,000/mt as compared to December 19. The Tokyo Bay FAS-based price for H2 grade scrap is currently at JPY 40,000/mt ($255/mt), with the dollar-based price down by $7/mt. The Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate has moved from $1 = JPY 156.76 to $1 = 156.64 during the given period, with the FOB-based price now at JPY 41,000/mt ($262/mt) for the grade in question.
South Korean steel producer POSCO has continued to buy Japanese scrap to meet its needs for high grade scrap. POSCO has shared bids for Japanese HS grade scrap at JPY 49,000/mt ($310/mt) CFR, lowering them by JPY 1,000/mt as compared to the levels recorded on December 20. Due to the fluctuation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, dollar-based prices have dropped by $9/mt over this period.
Taiwanese steel producers have started to receive offers from the scrap supplying regions following the silence over the holidays. While ex-US scrap prices have moved down, a stable trend is observed in Japanese scrap prices. In particular, following the rise recorded in the Kanto scrap export tender held today, January 10, a firm stance from Japan is anticipated. Ex-US suppliers of HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have started to share offers with Taiwan this week, having been out of the market for two weeks during the holiday season. Their current offers are at $290-300/mt CFR Taiwan. There are a few deals at $290-292/mt CFR. Offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk are now at $310-315/mt CFR, almost the same as the offers shared on December 27 at $309-315/mt CFR. Market sources believe that the workable levels for this grade are at around $305/mt CFR.
After declining in the previous two months, Japan’s Kanto scrap export tender was closed with a price increase today, January 10. The initial expectations were for a stable trend for the Kanto tender. Market sources report that available scrap tonnages in Japan are on the low side and the strong interest shown in the tender supported the price increase. In the Kanto export tender, the highest bid was at JPY 44,810/mt FAS, JPY 2,071/mt higher than last month. The dollar-based price increased from $280/mt to $284/mt FAS, taking into account changes in the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate.
Following the holiday season that was relatively silent in terms of scrap imports, Vietnam has continued to see lower import scrap prices. Despite the significant growth recorded by Vietnam in 2024, steel demand in the country has not yet recovered much. Offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have decreased further over the past week by approximately $5/mt to $315-320/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have declined by $5/mt on the lower end to $345-350/mt CFR.