As anticipated by market players, two weeks long silence in Turkey’s import scrap market has caused deep sea scrap prices to drop. Turkish mills stopped buying scrap in the second half of December and did not return to the market until 2025. Turkey’s import semi-finished orders had supported this move, with approximately 475,000 mt of billet imports announced for November, following the 628,000 mt in October.
Two ex-US scrap bookings done by two separate buyers are rumored today, January 6. The first deal is reportedly done by an Iskenderun-based producer, the second by an Izmir-based mill, both for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $346/mt CFR. For the second deal, some sources report that price is at $345/mt CFR. While none of the parties confirmed the deals at the time of publication, the quotations voiced for the deals are found acceptable by all players. As a result, SteelOrbis’ reference prices for all grades will decline approximately by $7/mt.
After the gradual price drop observed in Turkey’s import scrap market through 2024, new year began with a negative sentiment. Market players have little hope for the first quarter of 2025. European scrap collectors report that domestic demand in their region is not expected to recover quickly, steel sector of the EU is identified as “in crisis” more than once. Late last year, The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has released a joint letter with trade union IndustriAll Europe to Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Stéphane Séjourné, the commission’s executive vice-president for prosperity and industrial strategy, calling for an urgent meeting under the name ‘European Steel Summit’ with them both to discuss urgent solutions and the EU Steel Action Plan at the beginning of next year. It is also known that Germany, the driving force of the EU is getting ready for an election on February 23 and the economical policies of the country may change after the election. Meanwhile, Germany-based scrap sub-collectors are not expecting a price recovery in the first quarter, citing with the low steel demand in the region. On the other side, the euro-dollar exchange rate may help to European scrap exporters if they manage to reduce their collection prices further. The domestic US scrap market is expected to remain stable with slight potential to move up for shredded grades. Another note came from Russia. On January 2, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has announced that it has extended the ferrous waste and scrap quota for exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), setting the quota volume at 1.5 million mt for 2025.
Meanwhile, wild card of 2025 is believed to be President-elect Trump. Today, Washington Post reported that “President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover critical imports, three people familiar with the matter said — a key shift from his plans during the 2024 presidential campaign.” On the campaign Trump voiced his idea to implement 10 or 20 percent of a tariff on all imports to the US, the plan was criticized by the economists then who warned such a move may mean high inflation in the country.
