In the older and new deals which surfaced on January 21, Turkey’s import scrap market was trying to find a balance in terms of prices. The older deals showed that ex-US scrap prices decreased slightly, while ex-Europe scrap prices were showing signs of an upward correction.
On January 23, the positive sentiment in the market regarding the price trend gained strength. “Overall, expectations for a seasonal rebound in the rebar market are still strong. Turkish mills are in the market seeking scrap. Although we do not expect prices to move up sharply, we think a slight increase may be acceptable,” a source at a major Turkish mill commented. Market players agreed that there is no talk of production cuts among Turkish steel producers. A source at one producer even said that 2024 was not a bad year.
Today, January 24, an ex-France deal done by an Iskenderun-based producer has surfaced in the market. The cargo consists of 10,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $332.5/mt CFR, with 4,000 mt of shredded and 4,000 mt of bonus grade scrap at $355.5/mt CFR. The supplier is known for smaller tonnages, while the deal was done earlier this week. SteelOrbis expects the next booking for a typical tonnage of ex-continental Europe HMS I/II 80:20 scrap to be done at $335/mt CFR.
Meanwhile, sources report that the import scrap market has become silent at the end of this week. There are buyers making inquiries for deep sea scrap but they are in no rush, while suppliers have started to ask for higher price levels. Ex-US offers have been reported at $345-350/mt CFR Turkey, while an Italian supplier has asked for $337/mt CFR for a small tonnage. A Marmara-based producer yesterday announced that it was halting its rebar sales because of an anticipated increase in scrap prices in the coming week. Another source said European prices will easily hit the $335/mt CFR level next week. With positive expectations for the local US scrap market, US suppliers are expected to keep their export offers firm.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 1.05 percent week on week. The prices are now 3.86 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $333-340/mt CFR.
Following January’s sideways to $20/gt higher scrap settlement prices in the local US scrap market, the early outlook for February scrap was seen as sideways to higher, scrap market insiders told SteelOrbis earlier this week.
The sentiment remained stable in the following days. Ferrous scrap prices for the month of February in the US Midwest are now seen settling at least $20/nt ($22/mt) higher in most areas east of the Mississippi River, as cold weather and snow further reduces in-flows into collection facilities, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. “Right now, yards are trying to get equipment running and process what little scrap they have in inventory,” said one Midwest scrap insider, adding, “Flows into facilities are terrible, the weather remains brutal, and yards are operating on limited hours. The talk in Houston was that markets would be up at least $20 for February.” In the Midwest, problems with the transportation of scrap are not limited to weather-related delays to truck deliveries, as barge transportation of scrap and other products on the Illinois River will be shut down through March as the US Army Corps of Engineers completes work on docks. River closures and restricted movements are reported also for barge movements in Ohio, Tennessee and Kentucky, according to reports from American Commercial Barge Line.
Based on a minimum $20 increase for February scrap, Ohio Valley HMS I could settle at $360-380/gt ($366-386/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded scrap could settle at $415-420/gt ($422-427/mt) on a delivered basis. P&S is likely to settle at $405-$415/gt ($411-422/mt) delivered to customer, while prime busheling scrap could settle at $430-455/gt ($437-462/mt) delivered to customer.
Local scrap prices in Italy have remained essentially stable over the past week. Nevertheless, according to market participants, the market has entered a bullish phase as demand for scrap exceeds supply at the moment.
As for February, market participants expect a stable or slightly rising market.
Local Spanish scrap prices have also remained stable over the past week. Supply and demand continue to be balanced without being particularly lively, sources stated.
In the local German scrap market, scrap demand and scrap offers are mostly balanced, while both the finished product sales prices and scrap purchase prices of German mills are basically unchanged compared to December, with an exception for E1 scrap, for which mills’ purchase prices have indicated the highest upward correction due to the extreme scarcity of this grade. As reported by BDSV, E1 prices in January 2025 are at €261.3/mt, up €4.0/mt month-on-month. According to a local source, the current “market boredom” is not due to a wait-and-see stance in view of the upcoming elections, but due to the fact that the poor inflow is fully covered by the weak local demand. As for collection prices, the market may have reached the bottom, with one sub-collector refusing to sell under the €285/mt DAP threshold.
In Poland, HMS I collection prices are up €5-10/mt compared to last week at €280-285/mt DAP delivered to Baltic ports. According to sources, this upward correction is due to a lack of material in the local market caused by cold winter conditions.
The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer, Tokyo Steel, has announced its new prices for domestic scrap purchases, announcing further cuts for two regions, Nagoya and Utsunomiya by JPY 500-1,000/mt both for H2 scrap and shindachi grades.
Tokyo Steel’s general range for H2 grade scrap price has declined by JPY 500/mt on the lower end to JPY 39,500-41,500/mt ($253-265/mt) depending on the mill. Shindachi scrap prices of Tokyo Steel have remained unchanged at JPY 41,000-42,500/mt ($262-272/mt) delivered.
Taiwanese producers are willing to accept slight increases in deep sea scrap prices, following the trend of international scrap prices. Market sources report that the domestic rebar market in Taiwan is livelier since both billet and scrap prices are moving up.
Over the past week, offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have moved up by $3-5/mt to $295-297/mt CFR. There have been a limited number of deals at $295-297/mt CFR, increasing by $2-4/mt. Offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk have also increased, by $9/mt on the lower end and by $2/mt on the upper end to $310-315/mt CFR. Taiwanese steel producers have signed deals for this grade in the range of $308-309/mt CFR.
Ahead of the Tet (Lunar New Year) holiday which takes place on January 28-February 3, prices in Vietnam’s import scrap market have been moving down. Offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have decreased over the past week by $5/mt on the lower end to around $310-315/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam have declined by $5-10/mt week on week to $340-345/mt CFR.