The first rumors in the local German market about March scrap negotiations are indicating possible price stability this month, but a lot will depend on Austrian scrap prices that will be announced in the next few days.
“I’m expecting stable prices or even slightly lower by €5/mt”, a German scrap trader commented. “Mills have been extremely aggressive in February, and scrap availability is sufficient. Plus, rising concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East will slow the market down,” he added.
Moreover, spring is near and the weather is getting better in Germany. Rivers and channels are defrosting, making waterway transport easier and cheaper. Warmer weather will also improve scrap generation, although turnings remain the most wanted scrap grade. “[Scrap] inflow from the eastern border (Czechia and Poland) is on the low side,” a source indicated.
However, after being especially aggressive in February, it is likely that German mills will want to look for a balance this month or even try to reduce prices a little. In fact, according to unconfirmed rumors, a mill in northern Germany that had increased prices by €15/mt in February is now planning to lower them again, by €5-10/mt.
“Market sentiment here is subdued at the moment,” a German scrap exporter commented, reporting that, however, after hearing slightly higher prices for ex-US scrap in Turkey, HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices at ARAG (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp-Ghent) ports might increase slightly from the current €265/mt CIF to €267.5/mt CIF. “Otherwise, things are still very quiet at the moment,” he noted.
