Players in the local German scrap market have begun to share their expectations for November scrap price trends this week.
After local scrap prices showed sharp declines in October, i.e. by €10/mt in northern Germany, by €10-15/mt in eastern, southern and southwestern Germany, and by €10-20/mt in western Germany, market players are beginning to share their expectations for a possible price stabilization in November.
According to some market sources, two German steel mills expect long production stoppages scheduled for the coming month, and others have already stopped material withdrawals starting this week.
As anticipated, demand from producers is rather modest and is assumed to remain so in November. While some suppliers want to try to resist falling prices, others will be forced to give in to steel mill conditions due to liquidity issues.
When asked about the outlook for next year, a source from a German association commented: “The €500 billion in infrastructure funding announced in March this year makes the market hope for an increase in steel demand, with an influence on private investments. According to official data, from 2020 onwards public investment has been much greater than private investment, while before that year the two values were more or less aligned. Nonetheless, sentiment is not positive. There are many structural problems in Germany, and electricity prices are high, especially for EAF production.”
In the meantime, the consequences of a fire occurred at the end of last week at the Thyssenkrupp plant in Duisburg remain to be assessed, as authorities are still investigating to clarify the causes of the accident.
