During the SteelOrbis Fall 2023 Conference & 89th IREPAS Meeting held in Istanbul on September 17-19, it was observed that the expectations of participants regarding the future trend of the scrap market were characterized by some variation. Turkish mills were insisting that deep sea scrap prices should be corrected downwards, while scrap suppliers were saying they had no room to cut prices. Although today, September 20, an ex-Baltic deal was done in Turkey with a slight price increase, the general range of deep scrap prices has remained unchanged.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-Sweden scrap cargo was sold to the Marmara-region today, with the prices of 15,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $375/mt CFR and 25,000 mt of shredded scrap at $395/mt CFR. The cargo will be shipped in October. The price of this ex-Baltic HMS I/II 80:20 scrap is $2/mt higher than the levels recorded in the previous deal.
An ex-Denmark scrap deal by an Izmir-based producer was rumored during the IREPAS meeting, with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price standing at $372-373/mt CFR. This information was not confirmed by the buyer or the seller at the time. Ex-Baltic prices are considered closer to $375/mt CFR due to the abovementioned booking.
European market players reported that an Amsterdam-based scrap exporter is willing to pay €305/mt DAP for HMS I/II 75:25 scrap today, while a Belgium-based exporter is known to have paid the same level for this grade and €310/mt DAP for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap. This shows that collection prices remain stable for now in the EU, though a German sub-collector stated that exporters have started to voice their expectations for a decline in Turkey’s import scrap prices. “This is something that can disrupt our domestic scrap market. Although European producers increased their domestic scrap quotations to compete with exports, there is no real steel demand supporting the higher scrap prices,” the source added. A major European scrap supplier disagreed with this view, mentioning their expectations of a rise of around $10/mt in CFR Turkey prices in the near future, citing the demand coming from alternative markets. While those markets have bought attention-grabbing tonnages lately, their main demand is for higher grades such as shredded and bonus. This week, rebar demand in Turkey has showed no significant recovery. This is the main reason for the diverse expectations of Turkish mills and scrap suppliers. Turkish mills report that they are losing money even though their capacity utilizations rates have been more or less maintained. “This is seen in the Turkish market from time to time. We, as producers, bear the weight of the loss instead of cutting production rates or stopping altogether, because we know the cost of losing trained workers or of a full stoppage would be higher than the loss we bear right now,” the CEO of a major Turkish long steel producer told SteelOrbis during the IREPAS conference. Other producers SteelOrbis chatted to during the course of the conference all mentioned financial struggles, with one adding, “This monetary tightness is international. When it is fixed, Turkey may take a breather.”