With ex-Baltic scrap quotations decreasing once again in a new deal, expectations for Turkey’s import scrap prices have declined below $400/mt CFR, at least for ex-EU and ex-UK materials.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-Scandinavia deal was done by a Marmara-based mill, with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price standing at $403/mt CFR. There are more rumours that are not confirmed at the time of publication, while the benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices are all at $403/mt CFR from the same origin. Previously, ex-Baltic scrap prices were at $415/mt in old deals from last week.
Market players state that workable levels for ex-Romania HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices are now below $360/mt CFR, declining from the $370/mt CFR fixed in a deal this week. Due to the lack of new deals, SteelOrbis will revise its short sea scrap quotations to $360-365/mt CFR. Demand is on the low side. A Turkish mill has shared bids for ex-Israel HMS I/II 75:25 scrap at $355/mt CIF, but this level is considered to be high as of today, April 27. A supplier of ex-Israel scrap mentioned that Turkish mills have refrained from purchases this week, saying that they may be open to negotiations in the coming week.
While some Turkish mills have already planned cuts in capacity utilization rates, some will take such steps in May, particularly in the long steel segment. Whether others will follow suit remains to be seen, but some mills say it is possible they may start maintenance works if the sluggish demand conditions continue for long steel. For now, the general expectations for ex-EU and ex-UK HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices are below $400/mt CFR, and closer to levels around $395/mt CFR. A German sub-collector reported that it sold HMS I/II 70:30 scrap to Italy at €370/mt delivered. “Therefore, our expectations are negative for exports to Turkey. There are financial issues in the EU too. We hear the US is not that different in terms of demand. But for European mills, I can say that we expect the demand received from them to decline too in May,” the sub-collector commented. Generally, local EU scrap prices are expected to move down by at least €30/mt when scrap procurement begins in May. Another sub-collector seconded this, stating, “Since Turkey is absent, European mills are also inclined to exert pressure on procurement prices.” While negative factors such as political uncertainties, financial problems and exchange rate fluctuations continue to persist in Turkey, import scrap prices will remain under pressure in the first half of May, SteelOrbis foresees.