While the latest ex-Baltic scrap booking done by Turkey indicates a price decline, the sentiment in the market has largely changed after the US-China trade deal and the subsequent changes in the euro-US dollar exchange rate. SteelOrbis had already mentioned that the local scrap markets in the US and EU regions were stronger than initially expected, providing some support to scrap sellers since the beginning of the current week.
A Marmara-based producer concluded an ex-St. Petersburg deal yesterday for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $336.5/mt CFR and bonus grade scrap at $356.5/mt CFR. The price is $4/mt lower than the previous ex-Baltic cargo sold to Turkey. While SteelOrbis has revised the ex-Baltic reference scrap prices, it has only decided to cut the reference price on the lower end for now.
“European scrap sellers have increased their offers by at least $5/mt as of today, after the euro hit 1.15 against the US dollar. They were asking for $340/mt CFR yesterday,” a European scrap supplier mentioned today, June 12. Another source reported, “Ex-US cargoes are now offered at $350/mt CFR Turkey.” Despite the strengthening sentiment on the scrap supplier side, with ex-US scrap sellers largely remaining out of the market, the local rebar market in Turkey is showing little recovery after the holiday. A trader told SteelOrbis today they are still monitoring the situation, trying to avoid risks despite their depleted inventory levels. He commented, “There is an expectation of a cut in interest rates among economists. If the Turkish lira depreciates a bit and scrap moves up, this may be the foundation we expected to replenish our [rebar] stocks, not much but a little.” Currently, ex-Turkey rebar offers vary at $545-555/mt FOB for late June-July shipment, versus $550-560/mt FOB two weeks ago. According to sources, slightly below $545/mt FOB is only possible for serious buyers and large volumes. There have been only minimal changes seen in both local and import billet prices in Turkey over the past week, resulting in rather inactive buying. In particular, Chinese billets have been on offer at $455-462/mt CFR.
It is worth mentioning that international credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has revised its 2025 global sovereigns outlook to “deteriorating” from “neutral” due to an increase in tariffs and policy uncertainty. This will weaken the global growth outlook and intensify the risk of more challenging financing conditions, with public finance and political risks remaining high.
