Ex-Australia premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices have hit and exceeded $230/mt FOB this week due to heavy supply disruptions with continuing rainfall resulting in a number of force majeures at coal mines, disruptions in rail transportation and delays in shipments from ports. At the same time, buyers have been placing higher bids almost every day this week, trying to get any volumes.
Bids for mid-volatile Goonyella PHCC for mid- and late February laycan rose to $227-229/mt FOB, then to $231-232/mt FOB and to $235/mt FOB by the end of this week, while the last deal was done at $226.5/mt FOB for low-volatile PHCC on Monday. Market sources report some panic among buyers who want to secure cargoes for March, when steel production is expected to be at rather high levels in India and other Asian countries. Some market sources believe that $240/mt FOB is also achievable in the near future, but the main problem is whether suppliers will agree to these prices, considering the already reduced supply and the expected continuation of disruptions.
Some very rare offers for mid-volatile PHCC have been heard at $250-260/mt FOB for February laycan, reflecting the aggressive attitude of suppliers and the lack of optimistic expectations for the future.
A number of medium-sized coking coal miners - Stanmore Resources, Pembroke Resources, Fitzroy Coal and M Resources - have announced force majeures, while large miners like Anglo American are also expected to have delays in shipments. The railway system connecting mines to ports have been hit by heavy rains as well, and queues of ships for loading at major ports like Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal have exceeded 40 vessels.
“Deep tropical moisture persists around a trough that extends eastwards from the base of the Top End to North West Queensland. This trough is forecast to move into the gulf and develop into the monsoon trough during the weekend before extending over Cape York Peninsula by early next week,” the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) stated today, January 16.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Australia PHCC stands at $235/mt FOB today, up by $4/mt from the previous day and up $15/mt over the past week.
