Are US scrap export prices bottoming out?

Monday, 07 November 2011 20:00:27 (GMT+3)   |  

There have been a number of ex-US scrap bookings to Turkey in the last week as Turkish buyers begin to replenish low scrap inventories. But buying activity has been far from robust as Turkish producers have still been buying significant scrap tonnages from Europe because a weakened euro continues to make prices for ex-Europe scrap more attractive than scrap from the US. Additionally, finished steel demand in Turkey remains weak, which is reducing mills' need to hold bountiful scrap inventories. As a result, export scrap prices from the US East Coast to Turkey have declined about $10-$15/mt in the last two weeks to $425-$430/mt CFR. Turkish buyers have been trying to pressure the prices lower, to about $420/mt CFR, according to industry insiders, but scrap sellers in the US are resisting such low prices.

Scrap buying is quieter on the US West Coast as there has been little-to-no export scrap activity heard to China. Chinese buyers cancelled a number of ex-US bulk scrap shipments a couple weeks back, forcing the US scrap sellers to quickly divert the shipments to other locations such as Korea, therefore incurring a tremendous loss. So in the last couple weeks, export activity to China has been mostly silent. On the other hand, a few tonnages of ex-West Coast container scrap to Taiwan have been booked, at prices in the range of $395-$405/mt CFR--down from approximately $440/mt CFR two weeks ago. The drop comes as demand for finished steel in the Far East has weakened substantially over the past month.

The softening US export scrap market has forced a drop in US domestic shredded and HMS I prices, which have fallen about $25-$30/lt ($24.61-$29.53/mt) in the beginning of November in both the East Coast and the Midwest. As for busheling, prices have fallen about $35-$40/lt ($34.45-$39.37/mt) in the Midwest and East Coast in early November due to a decline in flat-rolled steel demand and a significant decline in spot prices over the last month.


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