US export scrap activity has remained quiet over the past couple weeks, but a resurgence in prices and activity may soon be on the horizon. US domestic scrap prices are expected to make major gains at the beginning of August, with some predictions as high as a $30-$60/lt increase, depending on grade and region. Consequently, export offer prices off both the US East Coast and US West Coast could firm as a result. Sources tell SteelOrbis that Turkey may be waiting to learn just how much US domestic prices will increase before biting on current offers, which are approximately $400/mt CFR and higher off the US East Coast. Turkish mills, however, are trying to hold the line at approximately $385/mt CFR for both HMS I/II and shredded scrap. A few deals have been concluded in the $390-$395/mt CFR range, but because European offers are much lower (at approximately $365/mt CFR), Turkish mills want lower prices from the US before making any major moves.
On the US West Coast, transactions have been minimal, and Far East mills are also closely monitoring the US domestic price trend. Some recent deals have reflected an increase in offer prices from the US to Taiwan, but Taiwanese mills have been in no rush to book cargos for month, sticking to domestic and Japanese scrap as much as possible, especially given the still weak finished steel market in Taiwan and China. The most recent offers of ex-US containerized HMS I/II scrap offer for Taiwan have been in the range of $390-$395/mt CFR, compared to about $380/mt CFR in mid-July.