Higher local rebar prices in Turkey have triggered rather active restocking of domestic billet, especially in the Iskenderun region, while most imports remain unattractive due to long lead time and ongoing market uncertainties.
Following a rebound in domestic rebar restocking, based on current moderate end-user demand and firm scrap prices, workable local rebar prices in Turkey have increased to $555-575/mt ex-works, with the highest level seen in the Iskenderun region. Although the daily sales volumes have dropped in the past couple of days, the higher price levels have affected billet buyers, which have accepted higher levels, again in the Iskenderun region. Since last week, one mill has traded 20,000 mt at $514/mt ex-works, while another mill has traded a decent volume at $519/mt ex-works. The latter level is on the high side, but the volume is most probably for prompt delivery. The most recent deals in the Iskenderun region have been closed for 25,000 mt at $507-510/mt ex-works, SteelOrbis has learned. The previous round of billet sales in the Iskenderun region was done at $500-505/mt ex-works in early November. In the Izmir and Marmara regions, local billet indications have been reported at $510-515/mt ex-works/CPT levels.
Contrary to the lively local billet market activity, imports have been rather silent. The main reason is the long lead time for Asian billet, and the uncertainties relating to longs exports from Turkey, particularly to the EU market. “Exports today are very weak and, although the local market is much better, it is still like missing a leg,” a trader said. The latest offers from China have been at $464-470/mt CFR for January shipments, up from $465/mt CFR at the end of last week. Sources feel that $455-458/mt CFR levels might be workable, but no serious negotiations have been reported. Ex-Malaysia billet prices for January are evaluated at $490/mt CFR, with no solid offers heard from traders yet.
In the meantime, both Ukrainian suppliers are in the market with limited allocations for December shipments. One mill is offering at around $490/mt CFR, in line with its previous offers, while the other mill is offering at $505/mt CFR. “It really depends on the buyer, lead time and volume. In any case, Ukraine is the best case one can find today of a clean origin,” a trader told SteelOrbis. It is worth mentioning that Turkey’s domestic EAF-based billet production is estimated today at $500-505/mt.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet stands at $435-437/mt FOB Black Sea, just slightly down from $435-440/mt FOB last week. In general, the market has been assessed as stable with low trade activity. Late last week, a small-volume ex-Russia deal was done at $455/mt CFR to Turkey, translating to $435/mt FOB. Two Russian mills have been offering in the range of $457-460/mt CFR, in line with last week.