Will Turkish mills’ rebar export prices continue to soften?

Turkish mills' rebar export offers have indicated a decline of $5/mt since last week to $565-575/mt FOB. Over the past week, some rebar deals, though for small volumes, have been concluded from Turkey's Iskenderun region to northern Iraq at levels of $575-580/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, buyers in Yemen and Egypt are seeking lower-priced rebar offers from Turkey and so they have remained reluctant to conclude fresh import bookings this week. In the coming days, the biggest increase in Turkish rebar and wire rod sales is expected to be seen in volumes going to the US market, though inquiries for import material in the US this week have remained on the low side.
 
Expectations for reduced Turkish rebar export offer prices have arisen due to China's active role in the Middle Eastern and the North African markets (MENA) with its attractive offers at $440/mt FOB and also due to declines of $10-15/mt in import scrap prices in Turkey over the past two weeks. Market sources claim that in the coming days Turkish producers' rebar export offers may decline to $555-565/mt FOB, the same levels as seen in the first quarter of this year, and that transactions will likely be concluded at these levels.