What is the direction of long product markets?

The upward trend in the long product markets have continued this week. Order books of Turkish rebar producers are almost full for April. For May shipments, there are offers heard at $440/mt CFR on actual weight basis. Although there are not many bookings at this level, producers do not follow an aggressive pricing policy, since their order books are full till May. Export market for merchant bar, on the other hand, seems to be active for the last two weeks. Sales to certain European countries, US, and Algeria continue. This week, offers for equal angles have been at $475-480/mt FOB, and offers for flat bars have been $10/mt above these levels. This week, rebar prices in the local Italian market indicated a slight increase and reached Euro 405-410/mt delivered to customers' premises, including 60 days deferred payment. On the other hand, export levels have been Euro 405-410/mt FOB. Ukrainian trading firms last week demanded $390/mt FOB for rebars and sales to Algeria were concluded at this level. However, with the price increase announced by Kryvorizhstal, sales to Algeria have been limited with the stocks of Ukrainian trading firms. One of the factors that caused Italian mills to increase their export offers was the move in Ukraine. The latest bookings concluded by the importers in the UAE, from Turkish mills, major suppliers of rebar to the UAE, have been at $450/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis. The offers, they received in the middle of the week, have been at $460/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis. Importers are not willing to conclude any purchases at these levels, since these levels are similar to the local prices. On the other hand, Turkish mills are hesitant about concluding any sales since they have already concluded many sales and due to the uncertainty in the market. Overall, although scrap prices have been stable in the last two weeks, the rise in the long product markets, driven by the strong demand, has created some kind of uneasiness in the market. Being worried that the prices have reached peak despite the existence of demand, buyers are trying to be cautious. On the other hand, sellers are acting cautiously, taking the possibility of Russian scrap to soften in April, unlike the expectations in February, and even to go upwards into account.