As the general consensus leans toward a $20-$30/long ton increase in shredded scrap, US wire rod mills are holding off on significant deals until the situation becomes clear.
While a range of possibilities regarding November scrap pricing were reported last week, most predictions have settled on an increase that would basically put shredded scrap pricing right where it was before the drop in October. The possible $20-$30/lt increase will be the result of tightening scrap supply ahead of the winter season, and healthy export activity to mills overseas. It will not, however, reflect increased buying activity from US mills--long product mills especially--who are just getting by on tepid, yet steady, demand.
Typically, wire rod mills will offer attractive deals to customers inquiring about significant tonnage, but by and large, mills are holding off on cutting deals until November scrap pricing is announced within the next week. For now, the price range for domestic wire rod is unchanged from last week, in the approximate range of $31.50-$32.50 cwt. ($694-$717/mt or $630-$650/nt) ex-mill. If scrap does increase as predicted, buyers should not expect major movements in wire rod pricing-mills will likely keep prices neutral.
As for imports, hesitant buying activity within the US domestic market has continued to push import offers to the margins. According to one Midwest trader, Turkish mills would like to offer higher prices, but they don't bother because US traders will not accept them. Currently, import offers for wire rod are still in the range of $29.75-$30.75 cwt. ($656-$678/mt or $595-$615/nt) duty paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports, as they were last week-but just like last week, no one is biting.