US rebar market: Nucor keeps domestic prices stable while import prices rise

Import offers for rebar have improved by approximately $0.25 cwt. since last week, with offers now ranging from $23.00 cwt. to $24.00 cwt. ($507 /mt to $529 /mt or $460 /nt to $480 /nt). The pricing trend is still up with the Turks still dominating the import market. Turkish mills have leverage to raise prices even further in the coming months. Taiwan, currently the second largest exporter, is temporarily priced out of market with billet price hikes in the Far East. Preliminary census data from the US import monitor show that the top five exporters of rebar to the US in February 2006 are as follows: Turkey, exporting 114'015 mt; Taiwan, exporting 23'367 nt; Japan, exporting 19'885 mt; Mexico, exporting 19'810 mt; and finally, Romania, exporting 14'712 mt. The domestic pricing trend, however, remains neutral after Nucor made their decision this week to keep both base prices and the surcharge for bar products the same as last month. Demand is strong, but there is no pressure on the scrap side to push prices up. Another probable reason Nucor chose to keep prices the same is that they did not want to give up market share to the cheaper import offers. Domestic prices still range from $24.25 cwt. to $25.25 cwt. ($535 /mt to $557 /mt or $485 /nt to $505 /nt) FOB mill. Extras change from one domestic producer to another and vary depending on bar size, grade, and length. The smallest rebar size, #3 (9.5 mm) fetches the highest extra. By not going up, domestic mills chose to keep their prices uncomfortably close to new import offers. This will take some wind away from import sails. However, regardless of domestic price, the domestic rebar availability is limited. Even if the domestic and import price equalize, the US market will need a significant amount of imported rebars in order to satisfy its ferocious appetite.