US merchant bar market: Import prices continue to rise

Since our last report on March 16th, market conditions for merchant bars in the US have remained fairly unchanged. Consumption levels domestically are still strong and demand is undoubtedly high. With domestic prices still flat, and Nucor choosing not to raise prices for April, the price trend remains neutral. Many attribute this domestic stability to Nucor's adopted price strategy, which aims to protect customers from wild price swings and assures a steady flow of orders. Although the conditions domestically are conducive to increases in merchant bar pricing, Nucor's low prices offer viable competition for those offering imports. Their relatively low prices also serve to keep the prices of most other domestic mills low, as they often follow Nucor's lead. Domestic merchant bar prices range from $27.95 cwt. to $35.95 cwt. ($616 /mt to $808 /mt or $559 /nt to $733 /nt), depending on size, shape, and thickness. Most sizes are on the lower end of the spectrum, perfectly capable of competing with imports. Only small sections such as 1/8 and 3/16, flats and small angles are sold at a huge premium where we see most small sections are imported. The import market is moving in a different direction, with a strongly upward price trend, seen especially in Turkish offerings. Demand and consumption are high in Turkey's home market, with consistent swells in billet and scrap prices that are expected to continue. Import prices for Turkish merchant bars and small sections have gone up even further since we last reported them two weeks ago, and are now being offered from $28.00 cwt. to $29.00 cwt. ($617 /mt to $639 /mt or $560 /nt to $580 /nt). This represents a $1.00 cwt. ($22 /mt or $20 /nt) increase. Similar conditions exist for the Asian merchant bar imports. Countries like Taiwan are raising their offer prices or completely withdrawing from the market until the billet supply stabilizes.