Upward trend in profile prices in Europe

As was the case in our previous billet analysis of March 8, import billet prices are continuing their upward trend while $560-570/mt levels are being talked of for domestic billet prices. Of course, these levels are making merchant bar producers anxious since they use billet as raw material. The increase seen in the US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rate last week, continued until yesterday. Consequently, domestic merchant bar prices have increased on a TRY basis. This week, angle prices are at TRY 925-970/mt ($650-680/mt), excluding VAT, and flat bar prices are at TRY 935-980/mt ($660-690/mt), excluding VAT. The week started well, but became calm after the loss in value of the US Dollar. Currently, the domestic prices have giving a boost to export prices. Even though U- and I-profiles are being offered for late May, the tight situation in the domestic market for NPU and NPI seems to have been relieved slightly. Export prices have remained unchanged this week compared to last week. Offers are being made at the same price levels. Merchant bar exports have recorded a rise in the first two months of this year compared to the same period last year. Although the US is out of the market, the demand from Europe has contributed to the rise in merchant bar exports. Turkey's merchant bar exports are expected to increase to Europe due to the new investments due to begin in the countries that joined the European Union this year. Last week, we remarked on the price increases seen in Italy and Greece. This week, Arcelor has also announced that it will increase its prices as of April 1 due to both the scrap price increase and the strong demand in the European domestic market. The prices of leading European profile producers are increasing and July shipments are currently being talked about. For example, the H-profile offers to Turkey were at €725/mt for June shipments. However, this level is expected to increase to €735/mt for July shipments. In addition, due to the strong demand in the domestic market and the scrap price increase, the producers in Greece are expected to increase their prices by €20/mt next week, although they had announced a recent price increase.