The longs business has remained challenging for Turkish mills, especially in the export markets. Competition with North African suppliers is still quite tough and demand is not satisfactory. In addition, the market is under significant pressure due to the war between Israel and Hamas. In the steel business, the war has already affected freight rates in the region, while vessel availability for certain destinations has remained tight. Moreover, amid the ongoing strife, Turkey’s shipments to Israel, which is the largest market for its longs mills, are jeopardized and suppliers need to attract alternative buyers. As a result, the export price levels for ex-Turkey rebar and wire rods have decreased and are now closer to the levels of the North African mills. However, some Turkish mills plan to stop their production in order to avoid giving sizeable discounts. For instance, one Marmara region-based mill is expected to stop its production from October 25 for at least 10 days, and the period may be extended depending on the market situation.
Currently, ex-Turkey rebar prices vary within $550-560/mt FOB for late October-November shipments, falling by $10/mt over the past week. Around 10,000 mt of rebar is reported in the market as having been sold earlier this month to Germany at around the current levels. However, the transaction has not been confirmed by the time of publication. In addition, a few mills are focusing on possible rebar sales to Africa, though no fresh rebar sale has heard this week.
In the local rebar market, the unclear financial situation in the country, the ongoing depreciation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, and the negative sentiment in the import scrap segment are negatively impacting daily rebar sales. Most Izmir and Marmara region-based mills' official rebar prices vary at $555-580/mt ex-works, versus $585-595/mt a week ago, while the workable levels are generally estimated at $550-555/mt ex-works. In addition, an Izmir region-based mill succeeded in selling around 15,000 mt of rebar at around $555/mt ex-works at the end of last week, while a small-tonnage rebar sale has also been rumored at $550/mt ex-works this week.
In the wire rod segment, Turkish official wire rod export offers are now at $570-580/mt for late October-November shipments, down $5/mt on the lower end, while additional discounts are applicable for serious buyers. In the local Turkish market, the general price levels are at $570-600/mt ex-works, versus $585-610/mt ex-works a week ago. The higher end still seems difficult to achieve under the current market conditions.