This week has been silent in the Southeast Asian billet market due to the Lunar New Year holiday, the absence of active Chinese traders’ offers and slow interest from buyers. At the same time, most market sources believe that billet prices will keep going up from next week and the only concern is how big the increase could be, SteelOrbis has learned.
Both traders and mills have been inactive in offering billet in Southeast Asia this week and market sources believe that traders will start offering at above $600/mt CFR next week, while mills will be more aggressive, asking closer to $650/mt CFR. The current tradable level for 5SP billet in the Philippines has been assessed at $600/mt CFR, according to market sources, but “it is hard to guess what prices will be next week, when traders will return,” a buyer said.
One of the large Asian traders said it expects billet prices to add $20/mt in the next round, taking into account the awaited strong return by China and bullish ex-ASEAN mills, which had been offering $620/mt FOB already before the holiday.
But some market sources expect milder price increases in the region from next week. “I think Vietnam will start to cap the upside. I have already heard Hoa Phat is interested in selling if bids for billet hit $610/mt CFR,” another source from Singapore said.
The SteelOrbis reference price for imported billet in Southeast Asia has changed slightly to $595-605/mt CFR, with the midpoint at $600/mt CFR, up by just $2.5/mt from last week. The prices reflect the tradable level in the market, though both overall trading activity and the number of offers has been limited so far.
Offers for ex-Iran billets have been at $585-590/mt CFR to Thailand and Indonesia lately with no new bookings confirmed despite rumors. This range is $5/mt higher than the offers reported last week. Any offers from traders at below this level are “not reliable, as traders cannot perform,” a source from Bangkok said about the speculation regarding offers at $570/mt CFR.
