How will US preliminary antidumping decision impact Turkey’s rebar export activity?

According to market sources, Turkey's rebar export offers have indicated no changes over the past week, remaining at $575-585/mt FOB on actual weight basis. Given the low transaction activity on the export side, some offers are heard below these price levels. This week activity has only improved in the UAE market for import materials, while two Turkish steelmakers have concluded sales for approximately 75,000 mt of rebar in total to the country at price levels of $580-592/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis ($572-585/mt FOB on actual weight basis) over the past 10 days. Having witnessed increased activity in the past two weeks, import rebar demand in the local Iraqi market has softened this week due to the local elections in the country, which will take place in the coming week. Overall, buyers in the Middle Eastern markets do not appear to be in any rush to conclude large-volume deals for Turkish rebar at the moment since they are already occupied with their own domestic agendas and also given the unclear import scrap price trend.
 
On the other hand, as according to information provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), with 617,294 mt of rebar imports from Turkey in 2013, the US is the fourth biggest rebar export destination for Turkey. The US Department of Commerce (US DOC) announced on Monday, April 21 its affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping duty investigation regarding imports of rebar from Turkey, imposing 2.64 percent duty margins for Turkish mills, except for Habas. This decision may somewhat slow the flow of Turkish rebar export activity to the US, but is not expected to seriously harm Turkey's rebar export activity. This is because the US DOC has announced duty margins in the range of 10.66-66.70 percent for Mexican rebar, which may give Turkish rebar an opportunity to replace Mexican materials in the US import rebar market.