How much higher can rebar prices go in Mediterranean and Middle East?

The Turkish domestic market experienced a calm period at the beginning of this week. 8-12 mm rebars were in a range of TRY 900-910/mt. However, the higher inventories in traders' warehouses and the delay in the purchases of construction firms caused traders to reduce their prices to TRY 895/mt. Nevertheless, the producers and rolling mills insisted on a minimum level of TRY 900/mt due to the high prices of scrap, billet and rebar export offers. There were some slight rises in the domestic market since certain producers had not given price offers by February 7. Producers in the southern region have started to give prices at TRY 940-950/mt. However, the other regions are not announcing any prices currently. This week, rebar offers for export from the Turkish mills were at $550-565/mt FOB Turkish ports on actual weight basis for April shipments to destinations other than the US and Gulf markets. According to the reports, there have been some small tonnage sales concluded at these levels. However, the producers mainly expect the Gulf and the US to give positive input to these offers. Furthermore, exports to southern Europe may increase in the coming period since this region's domestic market is on an upward trend. Traders' prices for rebar in the UAE market rose to AED 2,300/mt ($626/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 3- and 5-month deferred payment, excluding VAT. On the import front, the sale of one cargo was reported at $575/mt CFR.According to reports this week, bookings were concluded at $570-575/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis. Meanwhile, new offers have increased to $580/mt CFR on a theoretical weight basis. Base prices in Italy rose by Euro 20/mt at the beginning of the week, increasing to Euro 290-300/mt. Prices for delivery to customers' premises are at Euro 455/mt in the north of the country and at Euro 470/mt in the south. The prices increased mid-week to Euro 320-330/mt, with prices for delivery to customers' premises rising to Euro 475-490/mt. If the producers succeed in holding onto these prices, customers may start to buy Turkish rebars again. In late January, Spanish producers announced to traders that they were going to increase their prices by Euro 20/mt in early February. However, the producers were only able to increase their prices by Euro 5-10/mt since the trading firms resisted the planned increases by indicating insufficient demand. Base price rose to Euro 335-345/mt. The price level of AENOR-certificated 12 mm rebar was at Euro 515-520/mt delivered to customers' premises. The increase in scrap and billet prices along with the pick up in Italian and Turkish prices may help Spanish producers to achieve their targeted price increases. The Ukrainian mills in general made a slight increase to their prices in the first week of February. According to reports received, Mittal Steel Kriviy Rih's offers for Iran were at $475/mt FOB Black Sea. In addition, offers for Jordan and Syria were at $495-500/mt FOB. with Italian producers in North Africa. However, the return of Russia to the market may help Ukrainian prices to increase sharply next month.