Prices for ex-Russia billets have declined in new deals reported to Turkey and buyers there are waiting for some additional discounts. After announcements of safeguard duty for 200 days in Egypt, Russian suppliers have been looking for sales in other markets, Turkey in particular. Also, in general, the mood in the Turkish market has been cautiously negative.
A few sales for volumes up to 5,000 mt each were concluded to Turkish customers in the Black Sea region at $450/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $430/mt FOB or a few dollars lower. “They cut prices from $460/mt CFR to $450/mt CFR, but they should cut them more to around $445/mt CFR,” a Turkish importer said. One of the Russian mills said that they had a bid at around $452-454/mt CFR, but market sources believe that most buyers’ price ideas are lower.
Among the main reasons for the drop was the introduction of a provisional safeguard duty at 16.2 percent in Egypt, effective from September 14, 2025, for 200 days. “I predict that the CFR price in Egypt for WR billet will fall by $15-20/mt compared to sales done for September arrival. This will be too low for most Russian traders,” a market source trading Russian billets said.
Also, the depreciation of the Russian ruble was an additional reason for some softening of billet offers. In particular, the exchange rate has been near $1 = RUB 83 over the past ten days, while it was fluctuating at $1 = RUB 79-80 in August. Lower scrap prices in Turkey (down by $10/mt on average from early September) are another reason why Turkish buyers have been putting pressure on Russian sellers, who had not concluded deals since early this month.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has declined by $7.5/mt on average to $430/mt FOB Black Sea.
Turkey’s interest in billet offers from Asia is still on the low side. Offers from China for November shipments are mainly at $480/mt CFR, with slightly higher levels still being available. The buyers’ price ideas do not exceed $465/mt CFR and so no fresh deals have been reported. The indicative offer levels from Malaysia have remained at $490-495/mt CFR, being unworkable versus domestic billet prices in Turkey.
In the domestic market, billet offers in the Iskenderun region have slid from $500-508/mt to $495-505/mt ex-works with no fresh deals reported yet, following transactions for over 10,000 mt closed earlier. In the Izmir region, according to sources, offers are still at $500-505/mt ex-works, with the lower end being workable for small lots.