Ex-India billet prices have been maintained unchanged and the outlook is slightly more optimistic, while sellers led by government mills have still remained on the sidelines with expectations of prices having bottomed out in key destinations even though buyers have not been confirming deals, SteelOrbis has learned from trade and industry circles.
Ex-India billet prices from large mills are indicatively at $480-490/mt FOB and, even though large mills have not been submitting offers, they are in no rush to adjust them to drive sales overseas. Smaller mills are still ready to test $455-460/mt FOB, but no active negotiations have been held.
According to the sources, the slight improvement in ex-China prices has been taken as a cue that the price may have bottomed out in the current cycle and, even though buyers in Asia are still not committing deals, some improvement in realizations could be expected once year-end considerations are over and bookings for the end of January and February commence.
The Indian reference price has remained stable at $450-460/mt FOB.
A section of the market maintains that, even though government mills, the usually more dominant exporters of semis, have been off exports for nearly two months, private mills could look at renewing submission of offers once prices recover.
“It is too early to talk of a rebound in the semis export market. But, at the same time, the deep gloom seems to be lifting. Mills in China, we hear, are looking at attempting to hike the price. A clearer picture will emerge only in the new year,” an Indian source said.
“The mood is improving but buying not so much. Hence, sellers are preferring to keep offers unchanged and to wait and watch,” the source said.
Meanwhile, the downtrend in local billet trade prices has also been checked, with the market showing some stability. Rebar trade prices are unchanged at INR 41,500/mt ($490/mt) ex-Mumbai and are also stable at INR 38,800/mt ($458/mt) ex-Raipur in the central region.
$1 = INR 84.70