Are rebar prices approaching bottoming out point?

The rebar market is in a poor condition in the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Gulf regions. Commercial activity in the market is very weak due to the downward trend of prices. The Turkish rebar market was buoyant this week due to the appreciation of the US Dollar against the Turkish Lira. Turkish mill Kardemir closed its sales after completing a rebar sale of 50,000 tons (TRY 810/mt with deferred payment 30-60-90). Meanwhile, rebar prices have increased in Turkey's Payas region to TRY 845-855/mt after completing sales at TRY 825-835/mt. In the Izmir region, sales have been concluded at TRY 815-825-835/mt. Some traders consider that these are base prices and that there will be no further decreases. Meanwhile, others have purchased big tonnages as they consider that there will be a price increase in the short term. Although it is very difficult to say a positive thing for the Turkish domestic market since the international market going through a very calm period, these big tonnage sales seem likely to prevent a decline in the domestic market for a while. Prices even indicated slight rises on a TRY basis this week. As regards the Turkish export market, sales to Europe and the US are calm and most producers are seeking ways to complete sales to the Gulf region. Turkish mills are offering rebars for export at $470-480/mt FOB on actual weight basis to destinations other than the US and Gulf markets. However, there are no positive returns from southern Europe and the Middle East on these offers. Some producers in Turkey's southern region can conclude sales at $490/mt ex-works to Iraq. On the other hand, producers in Turkey's Marmara and Izmir region are not lucky as the others. The latest bookings concluded in the Gulf region were at $490/mt CFR on a theoretical weight basis. However, customers have indicated receipt of offers at 480/mt CFR. Customers are concerned about the continuity of offers and are not sure of the extent to which prices will decline. On the other hand, prices were expected to decline in southern Europe after the month of October. However, prices were not expected to show such a rapid decline, especially in the Iberian Peninsula. The prices in Spain indicated a decline of above Euro 30/mt over a three-week period. The price level of AENOR-certificated 12 mm rebar in the local Spanish market was at around Euro 470/mt delivered to customers' premises. However, commercial activity is very weak. End-users are asking for discounts even for fixed sales whose loading dates are approaching. The prices in Italy are also declining since the North Africa market is not very strong. Rebar prices in Italy were at around Euro 425/mt delivered to customers' premises. Egypt is currently noteworthy as the best rebar market. Producers are not making export offers below $500/mt FOB due to the strength of the domestic market. Therefore, Egyptian producers are out of the international market. Ukrainian producers have sold their December production at around 455-460/mt FOB to the Middle East and North Africa. However, the demand, which is slow for January, is putting pressure on producers. The downward trend continues in the market. The declines were very sharp in late October and November. Some market players are expecting the downward trend to continue, but slowly. Quite a few players consider that prices will bottom out in late December / early January and that the market will become more active towards the end of January. With regard to raw materials, Russian scrap is still not in the international market. US- and European-origin scrap, still not declining in the Mediterranean, have presented difficulties to producers. Consequently, the decline in prices seems to depend on the seasonal slowdown in demand. If the scrap markets can protect their price levels there maybe a price movement in January as the players' expected.