Sources close to SteelOrbis have confirmed that US domestic flat rolled steel prices are still softening.
Current US HRC prices are down by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) week-over-week are now being heard at roughly $37-$39 cwt. ($816-$860/mt or $740-$780/nt) FOB mill, whereas CRC prices have revised from $49-$52 cwt. ($1,080-$1,146/mt or $980-$1,040/nt), on August 25 to an average range of $47-$49 cwt. ($1,036-$1,080/mt or $940-$980/nt), FOB mill, as of today.
This week’s HDG spot market range is also down by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) in the past seven days, bringing the new average range to $46-$48 cwt. ($1,014-$1,058/mt or $920-$960/nt), FOB mill.
Lead times for HRC are still trending at 4-5 weeks, whereas lead times for CRC and HDG coil have revised downward from 7-8 weeks on August 25, to 6-8 weeks.
Last week, SteelOrbis reported that John Anton, director of S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that he believes that the ultimate HRC pricing floor is somewhere between $760–$780/nt ($838-$860/mt), although “mills would still be profitable at $720/nt ($794/mt),” whereas Timna Tanners, managing director of Wolfe Research said she believes that HRC is likely to trend at $750-$800/nt ($827-$882/mt), FOB mill.
Sources have indicated that some transactions are already taking place below those anticipated ranges.
“I think right now there are a lot of people who are being extremely cautious about what they’re buying and how much of it they’re buying,” a source said. “Prices seem like they could dip further, but I also suspect that the tons that are removed from the market based on some of the planned maintenance outages that we have coming up in the next several months might mitigate some of the downward pressure, which will hopefully help stabilize things going into the end of the year.”