US flat steel pricing was reported on the rise this week as the reality of higher August tariffs on key US steel suppliers is giving domestic sellers more confidence to raise spot prices as most imports remain largely non-competitive at current tariff levels, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
This week, US President Trump announced that beginning Aug. 1, reciprocal tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be 35 percent and 30 percent, respectively, unless sooner negotiated prior to the deadline two weeks from now.
Some market experts told SteelOrbis this week imports could be of little to no consequence starting Q4, 2025 as a result of new tariff actions and reactions by market insiders to re-direct and re-configure supply chains. .
“People have pretty much been in a holding pattern with regard to spot market purchases (for HRC) because of the uncertainty regarding tariffs, and the likelihood that we might see a rate decrease from the Federal Reserve soon,” said one pipe market insider that follows HRC to SteelOrbis. “Because of this situation, some sellers are said to be holding onto price levels that may not be realistic, given current spot market demand.”
Like last week, SteelOrbis notes a large range of price quotes from both steel fabricators and producing mills, though the majority of workable spot transactions are noted about $10/ton higher versus a week earlier as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline approaches.
“It’s (HRC) been pretty steady in the mid-to-upper $800s (per ton),” said one Midwest mill buyer. “I don’t see pricing going much higher.”
The SteelOrbis spot average price for hot-rolled coils is assessed up $10/nt at $860/nt ($948/mt), or $43.00/cwt., up from $850/nt, ($937/mt), or $42.50/cwt., one week earlier.
Insiders told SteelOrbis near term HRC pricing could be affected by a sideways to potentially higher August scrap market, that will depend on whether US President Trump follows through on recent threats to the current president of Brazil to raise import tariffs on pig iron exports to the US by 50 percent effective Aug. 1. All indications thus far seem to point to higher tariffs for Brazil, insiders say, unless Trump makes an unlikely last-minute carve out or other concession for pig iron exports to the Brazilian president, who Trump feels was unfairly elected in 2023.
On the mill side, key US steel maker Nucor kept its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC steady for a third week at $910/nt ($1,003), or $45.50/cwt., up from $900/nt ($992/mt), a price it held for two previous weeks in mid-to-late June. The CRU HRC index was reported $19/nt lower this week at $867/nt ($956/mt), or 43.35/cwt., off from $886/nt ($977/mt), or $44.30/cwt., one week earlier.
In the cold-rolled market, spot CRC is reported on average up $15/nt to on average $1,065/nt ($1,174/mt), or $53.25/cwt., up from $1,050/nt, ($1,157/mt), or $53.00/cwt., one week ago. Given rising HRC pricing and higher CRC weekly values, the weekly key price spread between the two steel grades stands at $205/nt, or $10.25/cwt., up from $200/nt ($220/mt), or $10/cwt., one week earlier.
In the coated finished steel marketplace, spot HDG base product on a delivered basis is assessed in thin trade unchanged at $1,000-1,040/nt ($1,102-1,146/mt), or on average $1,020/nt, up from $1,000/nt ($1,102/mt), or $50/cwt., two weeks ago.
This week President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada, the US’s largest steel supplier, would be assessed at 35 percent. In 2024, Canada exported about 23 percent of US total steel imports, followed by Brazil and Mexico. Current Mexico tariffs stand at 30 percent following a recent letter from Trump to the Mexican leader, while Brazil was assessed last week at 50 percent starting Aug. 1 unless soon negotiated lower.