Local Indian hot rolled coil (HRC) trade prices have continued on their prolonged downtrend, weighed down by the dismal outlook for overseas sales, the rise in import bookings for May-June shipments, and sluggish industrial demand, SteelOrbis has learned from trade and industry circles.
Indian trade HRC prices are down INR 700/mt ($9/mt) to INR 59,100/mt ($719/mt) ex-Mumbai and have lost INR 1,000/mt ($12/mt) to INR 57,500/mt ($700/mt) ex-Chennai in the south.
The sources said that estimated import bookings of around 70,000 mt of imported HRC are scheduled for shipment in May and June, of which at least half is of Chinese origin, the landed price of which is at least 8-12 percent lower than the current local trade price level.
“We apprehend that a lot of export allocations of mills are getting diverted to local sales as bookings from key export markets are falling steadily. Indian steel prices are getting aligned to global markets at a lower level. The high domestic price regime is in the past,” a Mumbai-based distributor said.
“We have no news on May-based price movements from mills. But trade prices still have a lot of downside risks amid a fundamental demand recession. End-users are not increasing output and are extremely cautious on raw material inventory management,” he said.
However, steel producers are still maintaining a cautious optimism. “Yes, there is some short- and medium-term volatility in both domestic and overseas markets. But the domestic economy is strongly driven by robust government spending which will support the market,” an official at a government-run mill said.
“We will factor these in while we decide on May base pricing over the next few days,” he said.
$1 = INR 82.20
