How long will US HRC prices remain steady?

Friday, 12 May 2017 22:28:27 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

The most commonly heard spot price transaction range for US domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) has continued to trend at $30-$32 ($661-$705/mt or $600-$640/nt), ex-mill, week-over-week, but some SteelOrbis sources report hearing about “one off” deals with volume buyers that have been booked at to up to $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) below that range.
 
In comparison, in early-May 2016, SteelOrbis reported that US HRC prices were trending at $25.50-$26.50 cwt. ($562-$584/mt or $510-$530/nt,) ex-mill.
 
Many market sources have reported a strong belief that the market is at or near bottom, with the idea that prices could start to firm in the upcoming weeks as buyers continue to step away from booking offshore and turn their sights instead to domestic producers.
 
“The Section 232 investigation is really the wildcard in all of this,” one trader source said. “Domestic lead times are still pretty short and we feel that many of our customers will book more tons with domestic mills, which are a sure thing, than take a gamble with offshore steel that may or may not arrive into the market.”
 
Current US HRC lead times are trending between four and six weeks.
 
In terms of current import tonnages, the US Department of Commerce reports that for the month of April, the most significant offshore sources for US import HRC were Japan, at 20,897 mt (license data) and Turkey, at 16,899 mt (license data).

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