In the last week of February, Chinese hot rolled coil (HRC) mills have maintained export prices unchanged despite the weaker domestic mood following a decline in futures prices. In India, HRC export prices have remained stable, with sporadic deals signed in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s import HRC prices have been fluctuating as the market assesses the impact of antidumping duties. Emirati buyers have continued to delay new HRC bookings, even as import offers remain relatively stable, while in Turkey both import and local HRC prices have risen slightly but are yet to gain firm support from demand. Meanwhile, Europe remains the only market where sentiments have been positive, with HRC prices climbing as import uncertainties drove stronger domestic demand.
Although this week most Chinese HRC mills have continued to maintain their offers at unchanged levels, sentiments have been more negative than positive, as average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have decreased due to the slump in HRC futures prices following last week’s rises. Besides, sentiment has weakened due to the news of the imposition of antidumping duty in Vietnam, though Chinese suppliers have managed to secure some volumes for Q235 HRC, avoiding trade measures. More specifically, offers for ex-China boron-added SS400 HRC from large mills have settled at $475-485/mt FOB, against $470-490/mt FOB last week, though the midpoint has remained at $480/mt FOB for mainly April shipment. The tradable prices, however, have been fluctuating during the past week, with most offers standing on February 25 at $466-75/mt FOB, up by $5/mt week on week on the higher end of the range.
Ex-India HRC prices have been kept stable at $485-510/mt FOB in line with slow trade. According to sources, a sliver of optimism has been emerging from the modest buying interest from the Middle East. However, deals have remained occasional as sellers keep refusing to make concessions and lower their prices.
Market insiders have reported several deals during past weeks signed to the Middle East above the $500/mt FOB mark, prompting most large mills to withdraw offers at discounts that were submitted earlier in the month. They said that an eastern India-based integrated mill reported a trade for 25,000 mt for delivery to Qatar at a price of $500-510/mt FOB, while another large mill concluded a sale of 20,000 mt for delivery to the UAE at $500/mt FOB. However, by the end of the week, most buyers in the UAE have been estimating the workable prices for ex-India coils at $510/mt CFR, or around $480/mt FOB.
Import HRC prices in Vietnam have continued to fluctuate this week following ups and downs in HRC futures prices in China and continuous changes in the mood among suppliers. Specifically, on Wednesday, February 26, news about China planning to cut crude steel production in 2025-2027 has emerged, bolstering the weak sentiments seen early this week. However, the general sentiment among Vietnamese customers has weakened due to the imposition of antidumping (AD) duty in Vietnam, though Chinese suppliers have managed to secure some volumes of Q235 HRC, avoiding trade measures. According to sources, several deals for at least 10,000 mt for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 have been signed at $482-485/mt CFR during the past week. Offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $495-500/mt CFR, against $495/mt CFR last week, though market insiders have not been interested in purchasing the materials due to the AD duties. Meanwhile, offers for ex-Indonesia HRC have been estimated at $520/mt CFR, with most bids reported at $505-510/mt CFR, while offers for ex-Malaysia SAE1006 have been voiced at $515/mt CFR. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $495-500/mt CFR, up slightly by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week, as sentiments have been improving among foreign suppliers.
Turkey’s HRC market has been closely following the price changes in China this week with some attempts by local suppliers to raise their offers as well. However, demand has not been supportive of the upward movement and most buyers have just been watching the market, also awaiting the announcements from China due in the first half of March. Within the past week, ex-China HRC offers for Turkey have increased in a couple of steps from $485-495/mt CFR to $505-510/mt CFR on Friday, all for April shipments. Sources believe that the main reason is rather the aim to take advantage of the relatively positive sentiment, than based on real support from market fundamentals. Most buyers’ price ideas are still closer to $480-485/mt CFR, which is not acceptable to suppliers. Egypt is out of the market nowadays, while Japan and Taiwan are at $520-525/mt CFR, with some ex-Asia offers even higher. Local HRC prices in Turkey are at $550-560/mt ex-works, up slightly over the past week, while export offers are now mostly at $550/mt FOB, particularly for the US market. In the EU, $575-600/mt FOB effective is considered workable by some suppliers from Turkey.
In the UAE, despite relatively stable import offers, import activity has been silent this week. The reason for the delay in sales is that Emirati buyers are still expecting price decreases, particularly from China. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers, who were more optimistic last week, have become softer on prices amid lower futures prices and weak sentiments, which is expected to have an impact in the coming weeks. Currently, China offers SS400 to the UAE at around $495-515/mt CFR for April shipments. Likewise, HRC offers for April and May shipments from India remain stable week on week at $525-530/mt CFR. Furthermore, Japanese suppliers have also continued to offer HRC to the UAE this week at $510-515/mt CFR for May shipping, while Taiwanese suppliers, who had been silent in previous weeks, have resumed offers at $530/mt CFR for late April-early May shipment.
HRC prices in Europe have kept increasing this week despite minor fluctuations. The main factor behind this upward trend has been buyers’ preference for domestic supplies over imports, as they have sought to avoid trade risks linked to the European Commission’s latest steel safeguard review. Additionally, market insiders expect more clarity on the new safeguard measures by the end of the week. This has fueled local buyers’ expectations that domestic HRC prices would continue to rise in the short term, encouraging them to replenish their stocks. More specifically, this week HRC mills in northern Europe have been offering June delivery materials at around €640-650/mt ex-works, up by €10-20/mt week on week. Besides, offers from Italian producers have been voiced at around €610-630/mt ex-works, mainly the same as last week. Most buyers’ estimations for the workable prices have been heard at €600-630/mt ex-works in the north, and at €600-615/mt ex-works in Italy. In the import segment, trade activity has remained in a lull, with most offers for ex-Asia, for ex-Malaysia and ex-Indonesia in particular, voiced at around $585/mt CFR, which translates to around €560/mt CFR, but, according to sources, “no one wishes to take any risk now”, following several bookings for ex-Turkey HRC done at €580-590/mt CFR last week.
