This week, the global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained under pressure as demand has weakened and pricing trends have diverged across regions. Ex-China suppliers have faced headwinds due to falling futures prices and growing export uncertainty, which also weighs on sentiment in Vietnam, where demand has stayed sluggish. In India, mills have floated a wide range of HRC offers, with some eyeing price hikes despite mixed signals from the market. Meanwhile, European mills have continued to push for higher offers, though tradable values remained flat amid weak buying interest. In Turkey, the price gap between domestic and imported HRC has widened further, while in the UAE buyers have been hesitant to commit as import offers have fluctuated. North African mills have also adjusted their export offers to stay competitive in a shifting market landscape.
Ex-China HRC suppliers have come under renewed pressure this week as domestic prices and futures have continued to fall, pushing mills to cut export offers. Market sentiment in China has turned more negative, driven by weaker local demand and growing speculation about a potential ban on non-VAT steel exports from May 1, prompting many exporters to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Offers for boron-added SS400 HRC have dropped to $460–470/mt FOB from large mills, with some as low as $455/mt FOB. Smaller mills were heard to be offering even lower, at $450–460/mt FOB. By Friday, April 11, tradable prices have slipped to $445–455/mt FOB, versus $455-460/mt FOB at the beginning of the week. while overseas buyers, particularly in Vietnam, the Middle East, and Turkey, have showed little interest, anticipating further declines.
The Vietnamese HRC market has remained sluggish this week, with weak demand continuing to hinder import activity. While domestic demand has showed a slight improvement compared to exports, overall trading has remained muted as buyers have remained cautious. Offers for ex-China HRC have slipped further, with Q235 grades quoted at $472–475/mt CFR for June shipment and SAE1006 at around $485/mt CFR, both down week on week. Offers from Indonesia and Japan have remained largely stable, though bids in Vietnam are still lower, reflecting buyers’ hesitation. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has narrowed slightly to $485–510/mt CFR.
Indian HRC exporters have continued to offer widely varied prices this week, adapting to shifting global trade dynamics while focusing more on the stronger domestic market. With maintenance shutdowns planned at several mills and expectations of reduced output, Indian producers are prioritizing local sales over exports. Offers to the Middle East have risen to $500–520/mt FOB, though post-holiday trade has remained subdued. Meanwhile, Indian mills have secured modest deals in Europe, including a 10,000 mt sale to Antwerp at $630/mt CFR and another to Italy at the same price. Talk has also circulated about a potential 15,000 mt deal with Egypt at $530–540/mt FOB, reflecting Indian suppliers’ efforts to tap into new markets amid global trade uncertainty.
European HRC prices have continued to trend upward, with mills raising offers by €20/mt for June and July deliveries, despite tradable levels staying mostly stable due to muted demand. Northern European mills have quoted offers at €670–700/mt ex-works, though deals were still being closed at €640–650/mt ex-works. Italian mills have followed suit, with offers rising to €650–670/mt, while workable prices hovered at €620–630/mt ex-works. The upward push has been largely driven by limited imports and tighter domestic supply rather than by a rebound in demand, which has remained weak but steady. In the import market, activity has remained slow. A few deals have been reported for ex-Turkey HRC at €585–605/mt CFR, duty included. However, according to a number of sources, new deal prices for ex-Turkey HRC have been estimated at already higher levels or around €585/mt CFR, excluding duty, which translates to around €615-625/mt CFR, duty paid, depending on the supplier. Besides, unconfirmed talk of ex-Japan sales at €625/mt CFR, including duties, has circulated, though traders have questioned the viability of such prices given the narrow gap with domestic offers.
Local and import HRC prices in Turkey have been moving in opposite directions this week, while generally demand has been weak. Chinese offers have been hovering around $475-485/mt CFR, down from $495-500/mt CFR seen earlier. However, no deals have been reported although the level of $470/mt CFR should be quite workable. Russian deals have been heard at $485-487/mt and $490/mt CFR, most probably for sanctioned material and before the decline of Chinese prices. In the meantime, local HRC prices in Turkey have moved up by $5-10/mt week on week to $590-610/mt ex-works, while export targets have climbed from $575-585/mt to $580-595/mt FOB. One of the reasons is the increased production cost due to the hike announced in energy prices. However, Turkish HRC producers have increased their prices at a time when import scrap prices have fallen significantly. Overall, taking into account slower demand, market players estimate the workable price levels at $580-585/mt ex-works for local buyers and $570-575/mt FOB for the overseas outlets.
In North Africa, suppliers from Algeria and Egypt have decided to adopt different price policies since their sales positions are not the same. In particular, Egypt, which has weaker positions in the EU, after the EU antidumping duty announcement, has decreased its HRC export offers from $565-570/mt FOB to $560/mt FOB over the past week. In fact, currently the Egyptian supplier is focused on the Turkish market, where its prices are under pressure from low Chinese offers, which have been fluctuating within the range of $475-485/mt CFR this week. Algeria, on the contrary, being under no pressure to boost sales currently, is aiming its official levels for HRC exports at up to $600/mt FOB, versus $570-580/mt FOB previously. Import offers from China to North Africa vary from $510-515/mt CFR Egypt to $535-545/mt CFR Tunisia, SteelOrbis has learned.
Russian HRC producers have remained active in the export markets, but the current exchange rate of the rouble is preventing them from being too flexible on prices. The latest deal prices to the MENA region were closed at $490-500/mt CFR, while in Turkey levels have been reported at $485-490/mt CFR. As a result, taking into account the current freight rates, the FOB levels are estimated at $445-455/mt from the Baltic region and at around $470-475/mt FOB from the Black Sea. In the domestic market, HRC and HRS prices have settled at close to $600/mt and $615/mt CPT, respectively, up slightly over the month. Local demand for flats in Russia has been recovering at a slower pace than initially expected.
In the UAE, this week Emirati buyers who witnessed some shifts in import offers as well as insufficient local trading activity, have chosen to remain silent on imports. According to reports, Chinese suppliers have reduced SS400 grade HRC pricing to $495-505/mt CFR, down from $505/mt CFR, for May shipment, while Indian suppliers have raised offers to $540-550/mt CFR, up from $520-530/mt CFR. The rise in ex-India offers is believed to be caused by anticipated mill maintenance works this month, which may result in a shortage of local supplies. Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers, on the other hand, have made no fresh offers since Emirati buyers have put off restocking, though the previous offers from Japan and Taiwan were at $520/mt CFR and $525-530/mt CFR, respectively.