The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has continued to show regional divergences and instability. In China, the export market has remained volatile, with mills adopting mixed pricing strategies depending on the destination and demand signals. Despite some upward adjustments, buyers have remained cautious. In Vietnam, leading producer Hoa Phat has lowered domestic HRC prices in response to persistently weak demand, reflecting broader pressure across Southeast Asia. The Indian HRC export market, however, has been under strain, with demand from key outlets like the Middle East remaining quiet and European buyers showing limited interest. This has weighed on Indian export sentiment, with few deals reported. In Turkey, local, import, and export prices have been following different paths. Meanwhile, Emirati buyers have closed HRC deals with Japanese suppliers, while most import offers in the region have remained largely stable.
In the EU, domestic mills in northern Europe and Italy have been offering aggressive discounts to secure sales, especially for large volumes. This, combined with the availability of lower-priced imports, has led to a drop of up to €30/mt in domestic HRC prices. Deals for ex-Turkey and ex-Indonesia material have been concluded with additional discounts, adding further pressure on the regional market.
China’s HRC export market has continued to show mixed sentiments this week. Leading mills have remained cautious, either holding back from issuing new offers or keeping them stable, while further maintenance activities are likely in July or August. More specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have remained at $445-460/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $452.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. Meanwhile, smaller mills have been offering their HRC at around $440-445/mt CFR, up by $2/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. In the meantime, by the end of this week, the tradable price for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC has been estimated at $440-445/mt FOB, compared to $435-443/mt FOB last week, and up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range since the beginning of the week. In particular, following a deal for ex-China Q195 HRC signed in Turkey through a non-VAT trader at $458-459/mt CFR last week, by the end of this week ex-China non-VAT Q195 HRC in Turkey has been voiced at $475/mt CFR, while offers from other Chinese suppliers have moved to $490/mt CFR. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam have settled at around $458-460/mt CFR, compared to $452/mt CFR at the beginning of this week and against $453-458/mt CFR last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have been largely stable in the Middle East at $500-510/mt FOB, with buyers almost completely absent, while offer prices for European customers have declined slightly again to around $530-540/mt FOB. A few deals in the EU have offered a glimmer of hope in terms of demand, but overall price sentiment has remained weak as customers have continued to push for deeper discounts. According to sources, a deal for around 10,000 mt of ex-India HRC has been signed at $600/mt CFR Antwerp.
Vietnamese HRC producer Hoa Phat Group has announced its new local HRC prices for August shipment, decreasing them by $10/mt from the prices announced at the beginning of June to VND 13,120-13,150/kg ($502-503/mt) CIF. The decision is due to the uncertainty in the import HRC segment in Vietnam, and, even though HRC futures prices in China have shown a slight recovery, sentiment among Vietnamese buyers remains stagnant. By Friday, July 4, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not targeted by AD duty, have been voiced at $458-460/mt CFR against $452/mt CFR for July shipment last week. Meanwhile, although the indicative price for ex-China SAE1006 HRC stands at $475-480/mt CFR levels, up by $5/mt week on week, buyers are unwilling to pay the duty, effectively eliminating demand for this grade. Meanwhile, indicative offers from Indonesia for SAE1006 HRC have been heard at $490-495/mt CFR for August shipment, mainly the same as last week. Workable prices for ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $490-495/mt CFR, with negotiations currently underway, though a number of market insiders reported higher ex-Japan HRC offers at $510/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $480-495/mt CFR, against $470-495/mt CFR last week.
Demand in the Turkish HRC market has remained limited this week but prices have been moving in different directions depending on the segment. In the domestic market, mills have preferred to remain at $540-550/mt ex-works with slight discounts possible, but are aiming to avoid major price drops. One reason is that large discounts will not trigger much additional trade since end-user demand is rather slack. Another reason is that the increased offers from China psychologically justify Turkish mills’ unwillingness to drop their prices. Moreover, some market players assume that Turkey may attempt to increase HRC prices backed by the Chinese increases, but many are also quite sure there is not enough demand to support a rebound. At the end of the week, Chinese HRC prices for Turkey have settled at $475-490/mt CFR, with the lower end referring to non-VAT offers, up from $458-465/mt CFR a week ago. Offers from Egypt are at $540/mt CFR, with deals for around 20,000-25,000 mt closed with a slight discount. Russia is currently out of the market and one of the Russian mills is expected to start offering for August shipments next week, at the expected levels of $485-490/mt CFR. Export offers from Turkey are officially at $530-540/mt FOB for August shipments, while $515-525/mt FOB levels are considered quite workable. Moreover, according to sources, the workable base price levels may be down to $500-510/mt FOB in some cases, involving deals for complicated breakdowns with sizeable extras.
In the UAE, import activity remains active, with Emirati buyers securing some lots from Japan earlier this week. Toward the end of the week, an unconfirmed deal has also been reported from China. According to reports, Japan sold 25,000 mt of HRC to local re-rollers at $490-495/mt CFR for August shipment, with offers holding firm. An unconfirmed Chinese deal for 15,000 mt at $490/mt CFR UAE for September shipment has also been reported, though many believe it may be SAE1006 or mixed grade due to the high price. Meanwhile, Chinese SS400 HRC offers from non-VAT traders have dropped slightly to $460-465/mt CFR, while other Chinese mills have kept offers at $470-480/mt CFR. Some higher levels at $485-490/mt CFR have emerged amid stronger futures. Additionally, Russian HRC offers have been reported at $450-460/mt CFR for July shipment, while South Korean suppliers maintained stable offers at $510-515/mt CFR, consistent with the previous week. Taiwanese offers have been heard at $515/mt CFR.
HRC producers in northern Europe and Italy have been pushing sales with notable discounts on larger volumes to bridge order book gaps. As a result, workable domestic prices for HRC in the region have lost up to €30/mt over the past week. Specifically, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for August deliveries, have been voiced at €560-570/mt ex-works down by €10-30/mt week on week, while tradable prices in northern Europe have also declined further this week, by around €10-30/mt week on week to €550/mt ex-works. In Italy, most offers from mills, including those from leading producer ArcelorMittal, have dropped to €540-550/mt ex-works for August delivery, from €560-570/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, workable prices have dropped as well, falling to €530-540/mt ex-works levels, down by €10/mt week on week, but, according to sources, offers for bigger tonnages have already been voiced at €515-530/mt ex-works levels. Offers for import HRC in southern Europe have been voiced at €460-520/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, down by €10/mt week on week. HRC offers from one of the Indonesian mills have been reported at the lower end of the range or around €460/mt CFR, with a deal for around 30,000 mt reported to have been signed in Italy at this level at the end of last week. Meanwhile, most bids from European customers for ex-Indonesia material have been reported at €440-450/mt CFR southern Europe. Meanwhile, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have varied depending on the source, with most official offers quoted at €500-520/mt CFR, duty included, compared to €515–530/mt CFR last week. However, according to market insiders, Turkish suppliers have managed to sell sizable volumes of HRC into Europe over the past two weeks - around 60,000 mt in total - at €485–495/mt CFR, duty paid, while buyers’ current price ideas have settled at €475/mt CFR.