Global HRC prices have continued to trend downward this week, reflecting weak demand and market uncertainty across the main regions. In China, tradable HRC prices have slipped slightly, weighed down by a subdued domestic mood. A similar trend has been seen in India, where prices have declined again, but aggressive competition has kept buyers on the sidelines. Vietnam’s import market has also seen a slight drop in prices, with overall activity remaining quiet and sentiment cautious. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), buyers have remained active amid increasingly competitive import offers. However, growing concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz added a layer of caution to purchasing decisions. Meanwhile, in Europe, HRC prices have fallen further as demand has remained weak, and market participants remain divided over whether prices have reached a floor.
This week, China’s steel market has remained in a clear seasonal slowdown, with limited price movement across the board. Thus, ex-China HRC export offers from major mills have remained relatively stable at $445-460/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $452.5/mt FOB. However, most offers from smaller mills and traders have slipped by a few dollars, reflecting the continued lack of recovery signals in the domestic market and the slight downward movement in HRC futures prices. In particular, the tradable price for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC has been estimated at $435-443/mt FOB, down by $2/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. However, lower offers have also been occasionally reported in the market this week. In particular, most ex-China SS400 HRC offers in the UAE have been reported at $470-480/mt CFR, against $475-485/mt CFR last week. According to sources, a deal for around 12,000 mt of ex-China SS400 HRC was signed in Oman at around $475/mt CFR at the end of last week. Besides, according to sources, while offers for ex-China Q195 HRC in Turkey have been voiced at around $470/mt CFR, by the end of the week a deal for ex-China coils from non-VAT traders has been signed at $458-459/mt CFR, down by $7/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam have settled at around $453-455/mt CFR compared to $455-460/mt CFR last week, while offers for Q195 HRC have settled at $440/mt CFR, down by $5/mt week on week. As of June 27, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,121/mt ($436/mt), increasing by RMB 9/mt ($1.26/mt) since Monday, June 23, while up 0.94 percent compared to the previous trading day, June 26.
Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) offer prices have declined for the second consecutive week but have still failed to attract buying interest amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers and nervous sentiment in Middle Eastern markets due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers have been reported at $500-510/mt FOB, compared to $510-520/mt FOB a week ago, but have still failed to elicit any response from buyers at a time when competitive offers from China have all been far below the $500/mt FOB mark and heard at levels of $440-450/mt FOB. The sources said that Indian mills have been adjusting offers but were still outpriced in the market, with UAE buyers mostly seeking deals below the $500/mt CFR mark, with some ex-China deals reported at $475/mt CFR. At the same time, market sentiment in the Middle East became nervous toward the end of the week, with both buyers and sellers uncertain about how the geopolitical situation will unfold in the coming days and its potential impact on sea trade routes in the region. In the meantime, according to sources, several Indian suppliers have been refraining from submitting offers to Europe, as local prices there continue to decline and interest in imports among distributors remains low. However, by the end of the week, indicative offers for ex-India HRC have declined to $540-545/mt FOB from $545-550/mt FOB reported at the beginning of the week. Thus, ex-India SAE1006 HRC reference prices have moved to $500-545/mt FOB, down by $5-10/mt over the past week.
Vietnam’s HRC import market has seen only minor downward corrections in prices this week, largely tracking recent fluctuations in Chinese HRC futures prices. Despite these slight adjustments, overall trading activity has remained subdued, with limited transactions and cautious buying sentiment prevailing across the market. More specifically, this week, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers, which are not targeted by antidumping (AD) duty, have been voiced at $453-455/mt CFR for end of July-early August shipment, down by $2-5/mt week on week, while offers for Q195 HRC have settled at $440/mt CFR, down by $5/mt week on week. At the same time, according to sources, this week several deals for 30,000 mt in total of ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC have been signed at $452/mt CFR for August shipment. Other foreign suppliers have been less active in Vietnam this week even though there is less competition with Chinese SAE1006 HRC suppliers due to AD duty. According to sources, only Indonesia has remained rather active with at least 60,000 mt in total of SAE1006 HRC reported to have been booked to Vietnam at $492-493/mt CFR for August shipment during past weeks. The SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has remained at $470-495/mt CFR, the same as last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to the most competitive offers from China, while the higher end corresponds to the tradable price from other foreign suppliers.
In the GCC, despite the slowdown in local demand due to seasonal effects, trading has continued to be active over the past week, with Omani buyers showing particular interest. At the start of the week, Oman purchased 12,000 mt of hot rolled coil (HRC) from China at prices of $475-480/mt CFR. Chinese offers for SS400-grade HRC have eased further, now ranging at $470-480/mt CFR, compared to $475-485/mt CFR last week. UAE-based re-rollers have begun showing interest in Japanese material following a decline in offers. Although no deals have been concluded yet, Japanese suppliers continue to offer below $500/mt CFR, and deals are expected as interest grows. In contrast, Indian suppliers have slightly lowered their prices to $530-535/mt CFR, down from $535-540/mt CFR last week, but these levels are still above what most GCC buyers are willing to pay. South Korean suppliers have also returned to the market, offering August-shipment HRC at $510-515/mt CFR.
Turkey’s HRC market has moved down this week under pressure from slow demand, limited buying activity and sliding imports. While domestic prices have remained at $540-555/mt ex-works with higher offers also seen in the market, export prices have dropped in sales of medium-sized volumes to $525-535/mt FOB, down $5/mt over the past week. In the import segment, Chinese offers have remained mainly at $460-465/mt CFR, similar to the levels at the end of last week. According to sources, at least one cargo has been booked at $458-459/mt CFR, while another has been rumoured at $460-462/mt CFR, but has not been confirmed by the time of publication. In addition, Russia has been selling HRC at $475/mt CFR and slightly above for around 30,000 mt for July production (non-sanctioned material). Bids for the sanctioned material, according to sources, stood at $450-455/mt CFR, and so the seller seems to have preferred to sell to the MENA region at $460-470/mt CFR. The Egyptian supplier is out of the market currently due to maintenance at two of its main hot rolling lines. Ex-Malaysia HRC offers are indicative at $535/mt CFR, with bids still heard $15-20/mt lower.
European domestic HRC prices have continued to decline this week amid persistently weak demand and bearish market sentiment. Many buyers are holding off from new purchases, pointing to adequate stock levels and anticipating further price reductions. As a result, trading activity remains muted, with a cautious and defensive tone dominating the market. More specifically, most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, for July and August deliveries, have been voiced at €580-600/mt ex-works, down by €20/mt over the past week, while in Italy most offers from mills have dropped to €560-570/mt ex-works, from €570-590/mt ex-works last week. In the meantime, tradable prices in northern Europe have also declined further this week, by around €10/mt week on week to €560-580/mt ex-works levels. Besides, workable prices in Italy have dropped to €540-550/mt ex-works levels, down by €5-10/mt week on week, with some speculative deals dipping to €535/mt ex-works. In the meantime, import trading activity in southern Europe has remained rather subdued this week, with most offers for import HRC in southern Europe voiced at €470-530/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, the same as last week. HRC offers from one of the Indonesian mills have been reported at the lower end of the range or around €470-480/mt CFR, while offers from another Indonesian mill have been voiced at €495-505/mt CFR. Besides, offers from India have been reported at $595/mt CFR southern Europe, which translates to around €508-510/mt CFR, down by €10/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from Vietnam have settled at $575/mt CFR, or around €490/mt CFR, while offers for ex-Thailand HRC have been reported at around €510/mt CFR.