The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market remains subdued, with limited activity and cautious buyer sentiment across key regions. In China, regulatory uncertainty and expectations of new stimulus measures have kept trading thin, while ex-China offers continue to soften. Similarly, Indian HRC prices have remained largely stable amid quiet trade, with buyers hesitant due to holidays and competitive alternatives from other regions. Vietnam’s market continues to struggle with weak demand, prompting Formosa Ha Tinh Steel to delay its domestic price announcement. In Europe, the post-Easter market has been calm, with flat pricing trends and buyers awaiting clarity in May. Turkish HRC prices have dropped further due to reduced scrap costs and weak buyer interest. Meanwhile, in the UAE, buyers remain cautious, despite falling offers from China, reflecting the broader global trend of hesitancy and muted demand.
China’s HRC market remains quiet as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of expected stimulus measures and amid concerns over regulatory crackdowns. Spot activity is subdued, and export interest remains weak due to VAT enforcement fears and tariff uncertainties. Ex-China SS400 HRC offers from large mills have slipped to $460–475/mt FOB, with smaller mills offering at as low as $450/mt FOB. Tradable prices have dropped to $448–455/mt FOB. Offers to Vietnam have fallen to $466–470/mt CFR, while Middle East offers have declined to $490–500/mt CFR. SAE1006 HRC to the UAE is at $510/mt CFR, and Q195 HRC to Turkey has eased to $483–490/mt CFR.
Vietnam's HRC market remains weak, with sluggish demand and slow trading activity. Ex-China Q235 HRC offers have dropped to $465–467/mt CFR, while ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC saw more buying interest at $500–505/mt CFR. Some deals were signed at these levels. Offers from Indonesia have been at around $510/mt CFR. Formosa Ha Tinh Steel has kept delaying its domestic price announcement amid market uncertainty. The import reference price for SAE1006 HRC stands at $485–505/mt CFR.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained mostly stable at $500–520/mt FOB, though trade activity has been limited due to holidays in Europe, price volatility, and subdued demand. Most Middle East offers are now at around $550/mt CFR ($520/mt FOB), while lower-end prices are mainly limited to niche markets like Nepal. In Europe, offers remain higher at $570–580/mt FOB, or around $650/mt CFR, though one pre-Easter deal was closed at $635/mt CFR Antwerp before Easter. However, further trades are unlikely amid buyer hesitation and uncertain trade flows. Middle East buyers are reported to be waiting for lower prices, targeting around $505/mt CFR.
European domestic HRC prices have held mostly steady but are showing early signs of decline, with market sentiment turning cautious due to euro-dollar fluctuations and geopolitical tensions. Northern European mills continue to offer at €670–700/mt ex-works, while Italian mills are mostly below €650/mt, with some rare offers as low as €605/mt. Tradable levels are flat at €640–650/mt in the north and €620–630/mt in Italy. Buyers are pushing for lower prices amid more attractive imports, especially as the strong euro makes domestic products less competitive. Import offers to southern Europe have softened slightly, now at €545–600/mt CFR. Ex-Indonesia HRC is offered at around €550/mt CFR, with possible negotiation to €540/mt. Indian HRC offers translate to around €545–567/mt CFR, while ex-Turkey deals have been reported at €580–600/mt CFR, duty included.
The Turkish market has been witnessing a sharp price drop in the import scrap segment, which has had an almost immediate impact on domestic finished steel prices, pushing them down. In the rebar segment, prices have fallen significantly, but prices in the domestic HRC market have only declined by limited margins. The main reason is the relatively better sales situation in the flats segment. In particular, Turkish HRC producers have been quite active in exports in the past several weeks. As a result, June production HRC is almost sold out and so there is less pressure to sell. This week, domestic HRC prices have settled at $570-580/mt ex-works base, down $5/mt on the upper end. Demand is said to be very quiet due to negative expectations and the falling lira. As a result, the levels of $560-565/mt ex-works are already felt in the market to be possible for sizeable orders, but the market is not quite there yet since mills realize that additional discounts are unlikely to result in good demand for the time being. Export prices for HRC are officially at $570-575/mt FOB, particularly for the EU. However, some Turkish and European market players have reported that levels of $550-565/mt FOB are also feasible, depending on the mills’ sales positions. In the import segment, the situation is quiet. China has remained at $480-483/mt CFR, while Egypt is still offering at $570/mt CFR, versus bids of $550-555/mt CFR. No new import deals have been reported.
In the UAE, while no new purchases have been reported this week, owing to declining prices, mainly from China, previously Emirati and Omani buyers in need of stocks preferred Japanese and Chinese suppliers. In consequence, Japan had sold 25,000 mt and 16,000 mt of HRC to the UAE at $505/mt CFR, while this week's offers are more or less unchanged, at $505-510/mt CFR for July shipment. Meanwhile, in the past week Omani purchasers bought 12,000 mt from China at $487/mt CFR for June shipment. Meanwhile, current offers from Chinese suppliers for SS400 are around $490-500/mt CFR, down from $495-505/mt in the previous week, but, due to restricted trading activity, a few suppliers have reported the lower level of $485/mt CFR. China's offers for SAE1006 HRC have also been reduced, to $510/mt CFR UAE, down from $520/mt CFR before. In contrast, Indian suppliers have kept their offers unchanged since last week at $540-550/mt CFR, with not much interest seen since the prices are the highest in the market.
