While Chinese hot rolled coil (HRC) exporters have not been rushing to adjust prices after the holiday, prices for HRC in other markets globally including Asia and the Middle East have been lacking clarity as well. In Vietnam, local producer Hoa Phat has decided to cut prices for domestic customers, while in India HRC exporters' price hike attempts have failed to attract buyers so far. In Europe, however, the mood has improved after ArcelorMittal’s price hike, though imports are still sluggish due to trade restrictions.
The Chinese hot rolled coil (HRC) market has resumed work after its long holiday which started on January 28. However, even though it is unusual for the start of a post-holiday period, HRC futures prices have already posted declines amid weak trading and expectations for any significant improvement only in March. Several large Chinese HRC mills which returned to work have kept offers stable at around $470-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $475/mt FOB, the same as before the Chinese New Year holiday two weeks ago, while most producers have not refreshed prices at all so far. Meanwhile, the tradable level for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC has been relatively stable or showing a slight downward bias, standing at $463-475/mt CFR, down by $5/mt on the lower end of the range over the past two weeks. As of February 7, HRC futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,449/mt ($481/mt), increasing 0.44 percent from the previous day, while down 1.03 percent compared to the last trading day before the holiday, January 27.
Returning from the long holiday, Vietnamese HRC producer Hoa Phat Group announced new prices for April-May shipments, reducing them by approximately $11/mt to $507-508/mt CIF compared to the previous month. While the price adjustment is minor, it has been driven by sluggish domestic demand and aligns with market expectations, as import offers - particularly for ex-China HRC - have yet to show signs of a recovery after the long holiday. The latest offers for ex-China Q235 HRC have been reported at $475-480/mt CFR for March shipment, against $479-482/mt CFR before the holiday, though, according to sources, most bids have already been voiced at below $470/mt CFR. At the same time, offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $490-495/mt CFR, the same as before the holiday, while offers from Indonesia have been voiced at $505/mt CFR, though no deals have been reported so far. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has remained at $490-495/mt CFR.
Ex-India HRC prices have been reported across a wide range amid the lack of any market direction, with most suppliers from China still absent and with Indian mills attempting to submit higher offers, but trade activity has remained silent, and buyers have preferred to await more clarity in the market. Specifically, although sources still claim that ex-India HRC prices have largely been kept stable below the $500/mt FOB mark in the range of $485-495/mt FOB, at least two sellers are heard to have submitted slightly higher offers at around $505-508/mt FOB to the Middle East, though no deals at these prices have been confirmed in the market. Thus, the reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $485-508/mt FOB, against $478-495/mt FOB last week.
In the GCC, while no new deals have been reported this week, there were some importing activities from the UAE and Saudi Arabia at the end of the previous week. According to sources, Emirati and Saudi buyers bought around 40,000 mt of HRC from Japan at $510/mt CFR. Previously, Japanese suppliers offered HRC to the UAE at $500-510/mt CFR. Another purchase has been reported, with UAE buyers purchasing about 5,000-6,000 mt of HRC from India at $530/mt CFR. Consequently, SAE1006 offers for February-March shipment from India to the UAE have settled at $525-535/mt CFR, up from $510-520/mt CFR before. Meanwhile, China has not entirely returned from its holiday and has kept its offers at $510-515/mt CFR, while this week Taiwan’s HRC offers to the UAE have been heard at $520/mt CFR.
Turkey’s HRC market has not moved much during the absence of China over quite a long period of time and after the return of Chinese suppliers following their holiday. This week, according to sources, many Chinese mills have been reluctant to offer firm export indications and the market situation is set to gain clarity starting from February 10. In the meantime, traders started testing the market first at $508-510/mt CFR for Q195 HRC of 3 mm and higher, but later one of the main Chinese sellers to Turkey and the MENA region softened its offer to $505/mt CFR. Other trading companies, according to market information, are voicing $495-499/mt CFR. Still, no deals have been reported as buyers are evaluating the market situation and possible risks. Aside from China, Egypt was offering HRC at $540/mt CFR Turkey for March shipment, while the estimated ex-Russia price for non-sanctioned material stood at $515-520/mt CFR this week. In the Turkish domestic market, the general price level for March production HRC stands at $550-560/mt ex-works base, depending on the producer, with $5/mt discounts considered possible. However, some market sources have reported certain attempts to increase offers, most probably following firmer scrap prices and the uptrend in the EU domestic market. Still, some Turkish re-rolling companies are quite sure $535/mt ex-works is reachable for orders for decent volumes. As regards exports, the latest HRC indications from Turkey have been standing at $530-540/mt FOB, but $10/mt discounts are considered possible. “We still need to see if the price rise in the EU [locally] is accepted or not,” a HRC supplier from Turkey told SteelOrbis.
While trade in the European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been gradually improving during past weeks, especially in northern Europe where mills are largely sold out for first quarter deliveries of HRC, the leading regional producer ArcelorMittal has decided to push its domestic prices across the EU up by around €10/mt since late December. More specifically, in the local EU market, ArcelorMittal announced its new target for HRC at €650/mt delivered in the south and at €660/mt delivered in the north, which translated to around €640-650/mt ex-works mainly for April deliveries, up €10-20/mt from the previous official levels announced in late December. Thus, other European mills have followed suit raising their HRC prices slightly, influenced also by trade restrictions and by stronger buying interest, while short-term expectations remain cautiously optimistic. Official offers from other European mills have been estimated at €620-630/mt ex-works for April delivery in northern Europe, the same as last week, and at €600-620/mt ex-works for March and April deliveries in Italy, up by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. At the same time, the tradable level in the north has been estimated at €600/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range over the past week, while workable prices in Italy have been assessed at €580-600/mt ex-works, against €580-590/mt ex-works last week.