While global hot rolled coil (HRC) pricing remains rangebound, regional developments—such as shifts in trade policy, buyer hesitancy, and selective demand recovery—continue to create a complex and cautious trading environment. Besides, this week’s developments reflect a market still searching for firm direction, with trade policy decisions—like the provisional ruling on India’s HRC exports—playing a significant role in shaping near-term dynamics. Meanwhile, Chinese market sentiment remained under pressure due to weak domestic consumption and slower-than-expected stimulus impacts, with exporters looking to offload volumes at competitive prices to global buyers. This added further pressure on other regional producers trying to maintain their market share. Thus, in Vietnam, demand for imported HRC remained muted, while Indian HRC export prices were mostly steady throughout the week, although trading activity stayed slow. At the same time, Turkish mills experienced stronger interest from European buyers, with several large-volume deals concluded for May shipment, while local prices for HRC in the EU remained relatively stable, though, domestic mills began targeting higher prices for June delivery.
Following some recovery in HRC futures prices in China seen at the end of last week, this week the mood among market insiders has started to worsen once again, while the ex-China HRC price trend has been lacking clarity given that offers from big Chinese mills have declined slightly, while offers from Chinese traders have continued to fluctuate. Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC by major Chinese mills have settled at $470-475/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, down by $5/mt over the past week. Meanwhile, the tradable prices for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC have been estimated at $450-465/mt FOB, depending on the destination, against $455-460/mt FOB last week. In the meantime, domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,450-3,620/mt ($476-500/mt) ex-warehouse on March 21, with the average price level RMB 20/mt ($3/mt) lower compared to that recorded on March 14, according to SteelOrbis’ data.
The Vietnamese HRC market continues to face challenges in finalizing import deals, as demand remains sluggish. Both domestic and export demand for coated steel remains weak, reflecting the overall slow pace of market activity. Offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $475-480/mt CFR for May-June shipment, up by $2/mt on the higher end of range since the beginning of the week. No firm offers have been reported for ex-China SAE1006 HRC, with only indicative prices assessed at $495-500/mt CFR levels, mainly the same as last week. Meanwhile, offers for ex-Indonesia SAE1006 HRC have been reported at $510-520/mt CFR, the same as those coming from India, though, according to sources, most bids have been voiced at $500-505/mt CFR levels. Besides, offers for ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $520/mt CFR and above. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has remained at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as last week. At the same time, according to sources, by the end of the week local producer Formosa HA Tinh Steel revised its prices for domestic customers downwards, decreasing them slightly by $3-6/mt since March 11, to $516-523/mt CFR for non-skinpass SAE1006 and SS400 HRC.
Ex-India HRC prices have largely remained unchanged or have been showing only a slight upward bias in some offers, reaching $490-510/mt FOB, against $485-510/mt FOB last week. Price levels varied significantly depending on the destination, with buyers in different regions reacting differently to market uncertainties. India also received a boost from a provisional zero-duty ruling in an ongoing antidumping investigation, temporarily exempting its HRC exports from additional tariffs—a development that may impact trade flows in the coming weeks. According to sources, following several deals for ex-India HRC in the UAE at $515/mt CFR last week, this week talks about a sale of 10,000 mt at $490/mt Qatar delivery have been circulating in the market. At the same time, indicative prices for ex-India HRC have been estimated at $520/mt CFR and higher in the UAE. Furthermore, some offers at around $490/mt FOB or around $515-520/mt CFR have been submitted in Vietnam by at least two large Indian mills, but no information on any deals have been confirmed by the latter. In the meantime, HRC buyers in Europe have reported ex-India HRC indicative offer prices at $610/mt CFR, which translates to around $555/mt FOB, standing in line with other foreign suppliers, including those from Vietnam and Taiwan.
In the UAE, due to escalating pricing efforts by HRC importers, there has been not much interest in importing, as Emirati purchasers are closely monitoring market price fluctuations and had largely stocked earlier in the month. This week, China, which sold multiple SS400 HRC lots to the UAE at $495-500/mt CFR, increased its higher end pricing by only $5/mt to $495-505/mt CFR for April shipments. Similarly, Indian suppliers have raised SAE1006 offers to $520-530/mt CFR for April shipping, up from roughly $510-520/mt CFR last week. In addition, Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers boosted their May shipment offers this week to $520/mt CFR and $525-530/mt CFR, up from $510-515/mt CFR and $525/mt CFR, respectively.
HRC prices in Turkey have increased further this week with most offers reported at $585-595/mt ex-works base, up from $560-580/mt ex-works earlier. Some of the buyers have reported offers at up to $600/mt ex-works, which is considered a bit on the higher side as of now. However, the price increases overall are considered justified, taking into account higher slab and import scrap prices, as well as rather active HRC exports from Turkey. According to sources, over the past 10-15 days Turkish mills sold at least 160,000-170,000 mt of HRC to Europe, some assess the volume at up to 200,000 mt. The deals started at $550-560/mt FOB and the latest ones, according to sources, were closed at $570-575/mt FOB. The current offers for June shipments are at $575-580/mt FOB. However, despite mills are claiming they are sold out for May production, some volumes for the domestic market should be still available, buyers assess.
In the import segment, ex-China offers have been hovering around $485-493/mt CFR this week for May shipments, while the buyers’ price idea is closer to $475-480/mt CFR. Particularly, there are fears regarding “melt and pour” clause to be announced in the EU, which is expected to restrict usage of Chinese HRC by Turkish re-rollers. The latest Egyptian HRC sales to Turkey have been closed recently at $570/mt CFR, up from $550/mt CFR earlier. The new offers from Egypt are expected at around $575-580/mt FOB or up to $600-605/mt CFR Turkey.
The range of domestic HRC offer prices from European mills has remained mostly unchanged for May delivery, though most mills are still targeting price increases for June delivery coils to levels of €660-680/mt ex-works, with domestic supply constraints and stricter trade measures on imports being key factors behind the mills' bullish stance, though real demand has remained stable at low levels. However, the EU trade safeguards are softer than anticipated, while the weaker dollar against the euro has made imports more appealing, leading to some bookings during past weeks. More specifically, local HRC prices in Europe have increased again this week, with offers for mainly May delivery HRC from mills in northern Europe reported at €640-660/mt ex-works, the same as last week, while offers from Italian mills have been voiced at €620-650/mt ex-works for May delivery, up by €10/mt week on week. Though the tradable price levels have been at €630-650/mt ex-works in the north and at around €610-620/mt ex-works in Italy. In the meantime, offers for import HRC prices have remained relatively stable or have been showing a slight upward bias reaching €550-610/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. Notably, according to sources, in the past 10-15 days Turkish mills have altogether traded at least 160,000-170,000 mt of HRC for export, particularly to European countries, mainly Italy and Spain but also to the Balkan region at €580-595/mt CFR, including duty and extras. Besides, according to market insiders, another deal for around 80,000 mt of ex-Saudi Arabia HRC is reported to have been signed at €570/mt CFR southern Europe last week.