Global outlook and the CIS market

The increase in the global markets is expected to have an effect on order collection this month. The overall expectation is that offer levels will be at least at last month's levels. Prices, which indicated slight increases at the beginning of Q4 of 2006, are expected to indicate slight decreases this month, and to end this year at these new levels. Even for early 2007, no significant changes are expected in the prices. Once iron ore price negotiations start, the pricing policies of the major mills will determine the extent of price changes. However, price changes in flat rolled products are expected to be in the range of 4-6 percent. These prices are expected to be valid during Q2 as well, if there is no big change during that time. The Russian domestic flat product market has been showing a stable and strong demand since the beginning of the current year with little fluctuation in the prices. The clear division of the market between the three major domestic producers –MMK, Severstal and NLMK- is one of the main factors contributing to price stability. In addition, the growing imports of flat products, due to the fact that domestic demand is growing at a faster rate than the domestic production, has created a healthy competition in the market, which is acting as a price stabilization factor. As for the rest of the year, we may expect no significant changes in the Russian domestic market. The price for the Russian-origin HRC had started this year at the level of $365/mt FOB. It reached its highest level of $600/mt FOB at the end of June and thereafter started to follow a negative trend descending to $515/mt FOB by the middle of August. From that time onward, export quotations began to rise, reaching $540/mt by the beginning of October. As for CRC, quotations have seen fluctuations which were not as sharp as those for HRC. The Russian CRC offers were quoted at $460/mt FOB at the beginning of the year and had risen to $655/mt FOB by the middle of July. They then decreased to $580/mt by the middle of August, before rebounding to $600/mt FOB by the beginning of October. The Ukrainian domestic flat market has followed a tendency similar to the Russian one. Due to growing demand for flat products from shipyards and the auto industry, and due to the inability of the largest domestic producers, Ilyich and Zaporizhstal, to meet the growing demand, imports of flat products have increased on the background of decreasing exports. The price for Ukraine-origin HRC has been unstable throughout the year, recorded at the level of $350/mt FOB at the beginning of the year, at $560/mt FOB at the end of June, decreasing again to the level of $465/mt in mid-August, and thereafter showing a rise to $510/mt FOB at the beginning of October. So far this year, Ukraine has utilized approximately 80 percent of the steel quota allocated to it by the European Union, while Russia has utilized approximately 70 percent of its quota and Kazakhstan has utilized around 70 percent of its steel quota. All three countries are expected to have filled their quotas by the end of the year. Indeed, these countries are seeking to use up their quotas especially before the arrival of heavy winter conditions.