Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have been stable in the past week amid continued silent trade conditions as buyers across key markets like the Middle East and Europe have been staying away from imports expecting significant changes in a new price trend impacted by changes in tariff regimes across global trade, ongoing antidumping investigations in the EU and the unclear price trend in China.
Sources said that, while ex-India SAE1006 prices have been largely kept stable in the range of $485-510/mt FOB, not more than two mills are heard to have submitted offers at the lower end of the range but still failed to close any deals.
Offers for ex-India HRC in the Middle East have been voiced at $525-530/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week, though, according to sources, buyers in the Middle East have been seeking deals in the range of $500-520/mt CFR basis, which have been unacceptable to Indian mills, leading to offers being withdrawn.
Several market participants said that the terms of global trade are set to change dramatically in the wake of the US administration proposing higher tariffs. While different countries are expected to resort to differing countermoves, supply chains would undergo shifts and diversion of volumes from one market to another cause a risk of price depreciations across producing countries.
“The tariff challenges have the potential to unfold in multiple ways, making it difficult to forecast emerging scenarios. However, one thing is clear: the flow of materials across supply chains will change, bringing surplus volumes into play at higher competitive levels. As a result, importers are likely to defer immediate deals and favor local sourcing until there is more clarity and well-defined pricing in international trade,” a steel sector analyst with a Mumbai-based financial advisory firm told SteelOrbis.
“Ex-India trade will face strong headwinds, as large import volumes are expected to be redirected to the still-growing Indian market, increasing the supply-side pressure on Indian mills to export. This will lead to greater ex-India price erosion due to heightened competition, particularly from China,” he added.
