Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have rolled back to the levels reported two weeks ago, though trade activity has fallen almost silent following the wide bid-offer disparities and with buyers expecting further declines as more ex-China offers are submitted to major destinations at lower prices, post-holiday. Thus, more deals from Indian exporters have been reported in non-traditional destinations at the lower end of the range.
Sources said that ex-India HRC prices have settled at $580-650/mt FOB, rolling back to the levels reported two weeks ago, and down by $20/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. Ex-India HRC indicative prices in Asia have been reported at $590-600/mt FOB, as well as in Bangladesh and Nepal, while offers in the Middle East have been estimated at around $600-610/mt FOB. According to sources, with bids coming in at below $600/mt CFR from Vietnam and at $600-620/mt CFR from the Gulf region, down by $10-30/mt week on week, Indian mills have stayed away from concluding deals leading to silent trade conditions, while most buyers have been expecting more alternative sourcing options, with sellers from China becoming more active in the market at discounted pricing.
Offers for ex-India HRC in the EU have been estimated at $695-700/mt CFR, which translates to around $645-650/mt FOB. However, only occasional deals for small tonnages through traders have been reported, while most sources claim that the majority of EU buyers are not showing much interest in imports following declines in local prices, while demand from Europe has been very slow due to the safeguard quota issue.
“Trade activity has been slowing down across geographies and with the entry of more ex-China offers and competition for Indian sellers, exports have become even more challenging post-holiday in China,” a source at Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
In the meantime, given the slow demand in the main trade destinations, Indian mills have started to focus on orders in non-traditional markets, specifically offering to Bangladesh at $600/mt FOB, for thin and narrow widths of HRC, and in Nepal at $590/mt FOB. Thus, according to sources, several deals for around 30,000 mt in total of ex-India HRC have been signed in Nepal at $580-590/mt FOB, while another batch has been sold in Bangladesh at $590-600/mt FOB levels.
“JSW is quite full for March, and it looks like there is not much quantity left to sell, while JSPL is the most excited one. They need to sell as their new line is starting,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
“Our assessment is that prices acceptable to buyers in the Gulf and Southeast Asia might decline further. But the silver lining is that most large Indian mills have low export allocations, with just a month left for the fiscal year to close and relatively low pressure to conclude deals at lower levels,” another source said.