Ex-India HRC export prices have remained largely stable across key destinations in the past week, with limited transactions reported and mixed signals emerging from different regions. While some Indian mills have attempted to test slightly higher offer levels on the back of stronger domestic market conditions and tighter supply, buyers in major import markets have continued to push back with lower bids. Overall, trading activity has been subdued, and many reported deals remain unconfirmed, reflecting cautious sentiment and a lack of clear price direction in the export market.
Specifically, ex-India HRC offers have remained at $470-475/mt FOB for the Middle East, but at least two large integrated mills have attempted to nudge them up to $480-490/mt FOB, largely based on bullish local market conditions and tighter supplies, but whether deals were successful at these levels could not be confirmed from market channels.
In contrast, while sellers have optimism that export activity will pick up in the new year, buyers in the Middle East have been heard to be bidding lower at $465/mt FOB, but no confirmation has been available of whether the ongoing sales negotiations were successful.
In the meantime, talk about a deal for 25,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed for delivery to Egypt at $465-470/mt FOB, or around $505-510/mt CFR, has been circulating in the market. However, this deal has not been confirmed by the time of publication, and, according to Egyptian customers, “They [Indian sellers] cannot compete with Russian suppliers, and the prices are higher than those coming from China as well.”
Furthermore, this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $490/mt CFR, compared to $485-490/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $470/mt FOB. “Offers from mills have been estimated at $490/mt CFR and slightly above, but Vietnamese customers still believe lower prices or around $480-485/mt CFR are possible to archieve in new deals through traders,” a Vietnamese trader told SteelOrbis.
At the same time, according to officials at two mills, Indian sellers have continued with their pause in submitting offers in Europe seeing business activity yet to gain momentum after the New Year holiday but taking positive cues from local mills in Europe attempting to increase prices, which could trigger a revival in import interest, but it is still too early to take a call and push up offers. Indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been voiced at $570-575/mt CFR, the same as last week, which translates to around $520/mt FOB.
As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $470-520/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range, given the higher offers reported in Vietnam, while the higher end corresponds to indicative offers in Europe.