Ex-China HRC prices soften as holiday season approaches

The Chinese HRC market has been experiencing a holiday-driven slowdown over the past week, with sluggish activity across most channels. Local prices for hot rolled coil (HRC) have edged down slightly amid limited sales volumes. As the New Year holiday approaches, the market is entering the final phase of pre-holiday trading, and meaningful activity is not expected to resume until early March. In the meantime, export prices from mills have softened marginally, although offers from traders have generally remained relatively stable. Some short-term demand for tight shipment schedules has already been met, while several mills have temporarily withdrawn their offers.

Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $470-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $475/mt FOB, down by $2.5/mt week on week. However, offers from smaller private mills have remained at $465-475/mt CFR, the same as last week.  “There are some declines in HRC, but only for some northern mills. Eastern mills like Shagang are sold out for March 2026 shipment,” a Chinese trader said.

At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $465-470/mt FOB, the same as last week. Ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam are still rare due to the absence of non-VAT offers, with indicative offers with VAT for April shipment voiced at $485-490/mt CFR Vietnam this week.

Meanwhile, Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at around $500-510/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier, the same as last week, but most customers have still been reporting workable price levels at $490-495/mt CFR UAE. In addition, Chinese Q195 HRC offers through traders to Turkey have been estimated at $500-505/mt CFR for March shipment, the same as last week.

“The Chinese steel market is clearly in holiday mode, with price adjustments reflecting weak liquidity and very limited buying interest ahead of the Spring Festival,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.

“Traders are prioritizing risk control rather than volume, and with mills stepping back from export offers, the market is likely to stay quiet until late February,” another source said.

In the meantime, average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have edged down slightly compared to the previous week amid declining HRC futures prices. In particular, domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,280-3,390/mt ($472-488/mt) ex-warehouse on February 10, with the average price level RMB 10/mt ($1.4/mt) lower compared to that recorded on February 3, according to SteelOrbis’ data.

During the given week, most market players have left the market for the Chinese New Year holiday (February 14-23), and so demand for HRC from downstream users has been slack. Sellers kept their prices at relatively high levels, while buyers have been unwilling to purchase, resulting in stagnant trading activity. It is expected that HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market will likely move sideways in the coming week.

As of February 10, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,220/mt ($463/mt), decreasing by RMB 45/mt ($6.5/mt) or 1.4 percent since February 3, while decreasing by 0.65 percent compared to the previous trading day, February 9.