World export price to rise?
Time and time again over the past 25 years, and usually irrespective of the trend in underlying steel demand, the HRB export price has changed direction about every five to ten months. Since 2000, the HRB export price trend has reversed about 52 times, for an average duration of 8 to 10 months. Interestingly, since the HRB export price declined steeply post-Covid from the fall of 2021 until early 2022 for a period of 14 months and has since fluctuated up and down for 4 to 5 months at a time.
Products for which prices are highly volatile include prime scrap, obsolete scrap, iron ore, coking coal, metallurgical coal and commodity grade steel products.
Hence, given the regularity of swings in price direction, this is one of the reasons in December 2024 that WSD was forecasting a modest rise in the HRB export price on average in 2025 with the high most likely sometime in Q2 2025 with a possible peak in the Spring of 2026.
This report includes forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations about future events and are subject to uncertainties and factors relating to operations and the business environment, all of which are difficult to predict. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, they can be affected by inaccurate assumptions we might make or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties, including among other things, changes in prices, shifts in demand, variations in supply, movements in international currency, developments in technology, actions by governments and/or other factors.
The information contained in this report is based upon or derived from sources that are believed to be reliable; however, no representation is made that such information is accurate or complete in all material respects, and reliance upon such information as the basis for taking any action is neither authorized nor warranted. WSD does not solicit, and avoids receiving, non -public material information from its clients and contacts in the course of its business. The information that we publish in our reports and communicate to our clients is not based on material non-public information.
The officers, directors, employees or stockholders of World Steel Dynamics Inc. do not directly or indirectly hold securities of, or that are related to, one or more of the companies that are referred to herein. World Steel Dynamics Inc. may act as a consultant to, and/or sell its subscription services to, one or more of the companies mentioned in this report.
Copyright Ó 2025 by World Steel Dynamics Inc. all rights reserved