General: GDP contraction for Q2 was adjusted slightly upwards in the latest estimate (to -0.7% from the previous estimate of -1.0%), while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pronounced the recession almost over and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, expects a Q3 growth of around three percent. But celebrating the demise of the sharp contraction may be premature. Despite many encouraging signs, unemployment remains stubbornly high. Job loss continues and fewer jobs are being created. It is no wonder then that consumer confidence declined in September. Car sales had a good month in August because of the “Cash for Clunkers” program but came crashing down to reality in September. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices mostly stayed in the growing mode but at a slower pace when compared to August.
GDP: -0.7% in Q2 2009 from Q1. Compared to Q2 2008 the fall was -3.8%.
Consumer Prices: -1.5% in August (+5.4% a year ago)
Consumer Confidence: 53.1 in September, down from 54.5 in August and 54.1 July
Industrial Production: -10.7% in August from a year ago; +0.8% compared to July
Producer Prices: -4.3% in August from a year ago; +1.7% compared to July
Unemployment: 9.8% in September
Trade Deficit: -$30.7 billion in August, down from -$31.9 billion in July, -$604.9 billion for the past twelve months. In the first eight months of 2009 the trade deficit with China declined -15% compared to last year.
Currency: 0.68 Euro to US$1 as of October 7 (0.73 a year ago)
Housing: Housing starts in August rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000 units. This is 1.5% above July’s revised number and -29.6% below last year. Housing permits increased 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 579,000 units. This is 32.4% below July 2008. Existing home sales in August fell -2.7% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units. This is 3.4% above August 2008. The national median existing-home price for all types was $177,700, down -12.8% from a year ago. Total housing inventory at the end of August fell to 3.62 million units, representing an 8.5 month supply at the current sales rate.
Automotive Industry: 655,654 units were produced in August or -10.9% less than last year. In the first eight months of the year 3,902,751 units were produced or -43.3% less than last year. In September 745,997 units of light vehicles were sold. This is -22.7% under last year. In the first nine months of 2009 the decline of total sales was -27.4% compared to last year.
Steel Production: 5.20 million metric tons in August or -40.0% less than last year. In the first eight months of the year 34.51 million metric tons were produced or -49.4% less than last year.
Purchasing Managers’ Index: According to the Institute for Supply Management the PMI fell to 52.6 in September from 52.9 in August. But the trend remains in the growing mode for the second straight month, albeit at a slower pace.
Other data in that report were as follows:
New Orders: 60.8 (64.9 August) – trend is “growing”
Production: 55.7 (61.9) – “growing” for the fourth consecutive month
Inventories: 42.5 (34.4) – “contracting”
Customers’ Inventories: 39.0 (39.0) – “too low”
Manufacturing Sector: “growing” for the second straight month
Overall Economy: “growing” for the fifth month in a row