General: It almost looks as if the "good ole' days" are back again. The last quarter saw a vigorous growth, the stock market seems to be on an irrepressible climb and the banks are paying-mind boggling bonuses to their executives again. Indeed, there are indications that the latest quarterly growth might be sustainable. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) points to a faster growth for the third month in a row, two out of the "Big Three" American car manufacturers have left their death bed (though Chrysler is still in critical condition) and Caterpillar announced that it will be looking to fill 34,000 jobs next year. Nevertheless, there remain nagging problems that keep the scenario of "W"-shaped recovery alive. Unemployment will get worse before it will get better, credits are still tight and the all-important housing industry remains far behind its record-setting numbers of only a few years ago.
GDP: +3.5% in Q3 2009 from Q2. Compared to Q3 2008, the fall was -2.3%.
Consumer Prices: -1.3% in September (+4.9% a year ago)
Consumer Confidence: 47.7 in October, down from 53.1 in September
Industrial Production: -6.1% in September from a year ago; +0.7% compared to August.
Producer Prices: -4.8% in September from a year ago; -0.6% compared to August
Unemployment: 10.2% in October
Trade Deficit: -$36.5 billion in September, up from -$30.8 billion; the US trade deficit with China rose in September to its highest level in nearly a year, reaching $22.1 billion
Currency: 0.67 Euro to US$1 as of November 11 (0.80 a year ago)
Housing: Housing starts in September increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. This is marginally higher (+0.5%) than the August number and -28.2% below last year. Housing permits fell -1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 573,000 units. This is -28.9% below September 2008. Existing home sales in September jumped +9.4% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units. This is +9.2% above September 2008. The national median existing-home price for all types was $174,900, down -8.5% from a year ago. Total housing inventory at the end of September fell to 3.63 million units, representing a 7.8-month supply at the current sales rate.
Automotive Industry: 672,614 units were produced in October or -12.2% less than last year. In the first ten months of the year 4,573,139 units were produced or -40.2% less than last year. In October 745,997 units of light vehicles were sold. This is +12.3% over September's sales and statistically even with last year. In the first ten months of 2009 the decline of total sales was -25.4% compared to last year. Ford recorded a stunning profit of $1.0 billion in Q3. The extent of this profit was quite unexpected. GM's new models and its revised policy of concentrating on only four brands seem to be paying off as well, while Chrysler remains stuck in crisis for the time being. Consumers are not impressed by Chrysler's essentially unchanged models on offer and persisting quality problems.
Steel Production: 5.38 million metric tons in September or -31.4% less than last year. In the first nine months of the year 40.24 million metric tons were produced or -47.0% less than last year.
Purchasing Managers' Index: According to the Institute for Supply Management the PMI rose to 55.7 in October from 52.6 in September. It is the third consecutive month of a growing trend and the rate of change is "faster."
Other data in that report were as follows:
New Orders: 58.5 (60.8 September) - trend is "growing" but at a slower rate
Production: 63.3 (55.7) - "growing" for the fifth consecutive month
Inventories: 46.9 (42.5) - "contracting" for the 42nd consecutive month
Customers' Inventories: 38.5 (39.0) - "too low"
Manufacturing Sector: "growing" for the third straight month
Overall Economy: "growing" for the sixth straight month